Teen sailor Jessica Watson and the weather on the way

8:33 PM Thu 29 Apr 2010 GMT

'Saturday forecast and Jessica’s current position - see the systems lining up' .

16-year-old almost-circumnavigator sailor Jessica Watson, and more importantly her support team, always knew that the final stages of her journey were going to be the hard bit, and Ella's Pink Lady is now caught in a morass of passing gales.

In attempting to pass below all three high latitude segments of her journey - Cape Horn, Cape Agulhas at the southerly tip of Africa, and South West Cape at the southerly tip of Tasmania, the voyage has to be scheduled to a plan that will be a compromise between the best weather for all three.

There's a reason why the Sydney to Hobart yacht race is staged in mid-summer,

Sunday forecast - .. .

and it's not only because it's holiday season and the harbour departure looks good on the TV set. The best weather for being in Tasmanian waters is January to March, but Jessica had to balance her timing with the rounding of Cape Horn, which she completed a little early - February is the best time for the Horn as well.

Now, to the left, you can see the systems that build up in the winter, and the forecasts for the next three days. The young sailor, who has been experiencing 8-12 metre swells and high winds, sometimes exceeding 50 knots, is now waiting for the worst of the current systems to pass before diving below Tasmania and into its lee.

On the subject of 8-12 metre

Monday forecast - .. .

swells, a word is necessary. Without knowing the distance between crests, the size of the swell cannot give one an idea of the conditions. A twelve metre swell can be anything from a long slow very pleasant mountain of water to a raging torrent, simply depending how far apart are the peaks of the waves. Jessica's blog, written not for sailors but for her mostly non-sailing fans, is vague in the particulars.

However, in the position that Ella's Pink Lady is in at the moment, the water between the yacht and King Island is shallowing, which would suggest that her seas would be very confused.

It's been a long journey, and, by Jessica's own admission, the fact that she knows she is not alone - is being watched by half the world, is some comfort. The thoughtful sailor will know that, while Jessica will not have taken any record away from fellow Australian sailor Jesse Martin, whose journey complied with the demanding criteria of the WSSRC and Jessica's did not, it has been no mean feat to get as far as she has.

The boat is strong, and Jessica has now been seasoned by many months of hard sailing. This is, hopefully, her final test.

by Nancy Knudsen