This is a challenging one, but the truth is I don't think I could do much... except.
I would secretly invest money in a satellite based tungsten rod delivery system (kinetic bombardment)... and try and take out the dear leader and top generals.
But I think the Chinese are trying to play games too. NK depends on China and wouldn't do anything to upset their only friend.
The US is having war games in the Yellow sea... WTF! Talk about stoking the flames, this sh!t could blow quickly. Imagine what the US would do if NK and China had war games in the gulf of Mexico?
Anyway how do folk reckon this whole things gona play out? It's looking serious if you examine and put together the recent behind the scene news.
India <> US (arms/energy) deals
Vietnam <> US
Oz <> US (more troops)
Indonesia <> US
Pak <> China (energy/weapons)
Africa <> China (everything)
While I doubt anything will happen soon the next 10 years maybe interesting.
Seems like the South Koreans are sick of the North. With one of their navy boats blown up a few months ago and now this going on perhaps the South is saying "enough is enough".
The problem is the North Korean government is between a rock and a hard place. They can't open up the country like the Chinese have. If they do the North Koreans will soon find out ordinary South Koreans are living an incredibly prosperous lifestyle.
War should be avoided in any way possible. Nothing good happens out of war and its unbelievable the US would be prepared to start another war while they are bogged down in two other wars and their domestic economy is going down the drain.
The best way forward is for the North Korean people to learn whats going on in the outside world. Thereby they will learn they unnecessarily suffer because of their government which has self serving policies designed to keep it in power through isolation. Basically open up all the borders and trade as much as possible. Open up contact through any means and cost as necessary. Flood the place with free mobile phones and so on. If this means pandering to unreasonable North Korean government demands then that is the price to pay.
The second best policy is to encourage China to completely close the border. Close off the border and basically destroy the North Korean economy. By this the people of North Korea will hopefully overthrow their government.
Hopefully war is avoided but it sounds like both sides want war.
Moby reminded me of the old saying -
War does not decide who is right.
War only decides who is left
However with the case of clear aggression from the north, the south should bomb the blazes out of them. Trouble is then other countries will enter the conflict and it would be messy
The North has one of the largest armies in the world! they didn't build this force up simply to march at cermonies, $hit will hit the fan big time!
There are a number of issues that complicate the situation.
1.- NK government is in decline and the army aren't happy.
2.- China is supporting the army and government to make sure it doesn't fall cos if it does SK will take over, best situation for all except China. China would then be completely encircled by America allies except for Russia... even Mongolia and some SCO countries are openly friendly to the western allies.
3.- NK citizens have been completely brain washed and believe the south is an American puppet, and the US guarding the border and sending boats in just plays in to the propaganda... so a lot of North Koreans want to liberate the south.
4.- The north has the bomb and could hit all US bases in SK and Japan.
So without China's influence we'd end up with 1 Korea in < 3 years. But China understandably wants to grow its influence.
It's started to push around it's neighbours economically (Japan/Vietnam/Laos/Mongolia) and the only country keeping it in check is the US... who pushes around every body anyway.
The US it's straightening it's allies and fostering new counter weights to China, read India and even trying to stir civil unrest in western China (Uighurs).
So it looks like a cold war is brewing... what effect that will have on trade is uncertain but in the long run it will have to have some effect or else it's all just meaningless pandering.
The scary thing is we live in such a world of mainstream disinformation we won't know until it's happened.
I know from the laws of nature that no new power rises by letting another push it around... they fight and it's either a draw or somebody wins.
Speaking of which I saw 2 male leopards have a fight...
I think it's this:
My simplistic view on the complicated world of International Politics.
It has been rumoured that the North Korean Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-il is ill. It was thought/guessed that he may have suffered a stroke earlier this year. It has be recently reported that he may have Panceatic cancer.
His 3rd son, Kim Jong-un, has been elevated up the ranks of the Korean workers party. He is young and inexperienced (no military experience) and will require the support of the military to continue in his Father's footsteps. The recent confrontations with South Korea could be seen as a way to divert the North Korean military's attention/resources in an attempt to bolster support for Kim Jong-il and help pave the way for his son, Kim Jong-un, to become the next Supreme leader.
Having said that. What happens inside North Korea is a bit of a side show. Without any outside help North Korea could easily be defeated by many other countries in the world including South Korea.
I agree with what has been said about China. The reality of the situation is that China is part of the equation. With it's massive economic growth China is expected to be a regional power/super power over the following decades. It certainly isn't considering any possibility of the west closing in on it's borders.
So probably the best thing for South Korea/US to do atm is put pressure on North Korea by putting pressure on it's strongest allie China. I would imagine that China would be unhappy that recent North Korean actions have resulted in an increased build up of the US navy right on it's doorstep. China will likely threaten to withdraw some of their support to North Korea if the leadership doesn't tone down it's confrontations with the west.
Heard a rational lecture on Radio national recently about China's upcoming place in international politics. Here it is in case someone on seabreeze is interested:
www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/a-gathering-storm---chinas-challenge-to-us-power/2977234
I am not supporting North Korea, but I would like to point out that ths US and South Korea were playing major mock land and sea war exercises immediately before (and after) the North fired missiles. Grab a map and take a look where that island (and the war games arena) is located, a tiny SK pimple surrounded by NK territory.
Now, NK claimed that SK fired first.
In my mind I can see that it is entirely possible that :
The US and SK war games are designed in part (or in most) to intimidate NK
A US or SK missle or shell went astray and landed in NK territory
Not saying that makes it OK to fire back, just saying that doesn't make it OK for western journalists to broadcast that NK shelled SK, without perhaps divulging some of these other 'facts'. OK, so maybe not all are facts, but NK claiming SK fired first is a fact that got missed off most 7pm broadcasts, so maybe a few more minor details got omitted as well ?
Perhaps the governers of SK should play war games further away from NK territory as a first sign of unilateral goodwill ?
Kim is a closet homo and with 0 military experience too. His son is another farked up idiot that's one of the reasons why the military isn't happy.
Another is cos they either fight and rally national support or lose control.
China wants the North to slow down/take it ez cos China needs more time to build offensive capability and for the US to weaken.
US wants the North to implode and China to play it's card while the US still controls its energy routes or to open it's economy (float currency, liberalise, privatise) so they can tinker and reassert their dominance.
Within the next couple years a couple US states will go bankrupt, US needs something to pull out of a hat cos printing greenbacks isn't gona work.
Interesting times ahead and don't think if the $hit hit's the fan we're not gona end up sticking like it.
There will be heavy casualties on the north korean The western world is far to powerful to let a renegade leader threaten it.
i would ring tim holding and offer him the job , with brumby as his faithfull side kick
they must need a water factory somewhere over there .
I reckon that the United States badly needs another war. Their economy is in a death spiral. China, Russia and Brazil have announced that they will no longer be using the dollar in their transactions. Their unemployment rate is through the roof.
Problem is the administration will not get support for escalated theaters of action.
Unless the population can be turned around. They provoked Japan into attacking them in the second world war at Pearl Harbour and the voters did a U turn.
If they did not want war with NK the military exercises would have been called off. Question is, are the North Koreans gormless enough to sink a patsy and land themselves (and every other bastard ) in a conflict the world does not need?
Gordon Duff of Veterans Today has an interesting outlook: www.veteranstodayarchives.com/2010/11/25/gordon-duff-iran-korea-nuclear-lies-orders-from-tel-aviv/
