Today I learnt a new term "Death Cross" The all ordinaries index made a death cross today.
I do...
We all need less government in our lives, so we can have confidence to crank it up again...
Unfortunately, the Labs are hitting us from every direction with a new tax just about every month. And some taxes and other ideas they test through the media for popular appeal. This = uncertainty. Uncertainty = bad.
Comments on the Labs, bait for the log :p
Not a bloody chance are we heading for a recession, not a bloody chance!
Big global business houses are all on the make.
Yes there are the ones falling over, and main reason being that they were always a bad risk anyway. Yes some may fail, but mainly due to bad business decisions in the past.
But anybody who swallows the line of a recession looming, needs to have been through one and see the lead up/down business activity, the scraggy arse bounce across the bottom and the climb out after.
Just ride it out, it will get sweet 
Have you noticed that the companies that are struggling are ones that are trying to compete with online sales?
The writing has been on the wall for ages. The internet is responsible for Angus&Robertson/Borders closing its doors.
Recently I checked out the prices of some books, it was cheaper for me to order my books from amazon in the USA than it was to wander down to my local bookstore. So I let my mouse-button do the talking. I guarantee many others are doing the same. The strong Aussie dollar is also a big factor here.
BHP shares are 40% higher than they were two years ago. This is a pretty good sign to me that things are on the improve 
Greece is a worry though, heard some talk today that they might bring down the EU 
^^^JUST jokin'
This one is not about the way the world sees us, it is about how we see ourselves. It is about local confidence. The industry I work in is cranking, but I, like many others, am saving.
The meddling, bungling, uncertainty is going to exacerbate the "two-speed" economy.
The Labs will take the doe, blow loads with crazy schemes, and pass back a pittance.
This mornings Age newspaper is a little full of retail gloom stories, unfortunately there are lots of new shopping centres and retailing companies have been expanding on the hope of some magical increase of population and continued spending, how many DFO's do we need or bookshops, one look at borders in chapel st, of supermarket size, at about $2000 per sq m rent, 3/4 of the space is walkways albeit expensive ones, or do we need 44 Gazman mens clothing shops in Melb? No. but the demise of them like so many other businesses of similiar model creates opportunities for others, leaner, smarter to take advantage and so a cycle begins again, also maybe consumers are awakening from a big spend to realize we don't need any more stuff, you just have to look at the hard rubbish that we throw out on the, its works the other way for me, I scored some great chairs, plastic boxes and ......
Here is another thought on the economy that a friend told me about years ago....
Beer vs. Stock Market Situation
(With the current market crisis, this puts a friendly spin on things..)
If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you would have $49.00 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you would have $33.00 today. If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you would have $0.00 today. But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, and then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund, you would have received $214.00.
^^^
Bet I could pick two points on a wiggly line and prove anything, even that bears don't **** in the woods.
Isn't a recession two consecutive quarters of negative growth (never really understood negative growth, shouldn't it be shrinkage ?)
We had one, blamed on rain in Queensland.
I would therefore say there is 100% chance of the probability of a recession occuring being greater than average.
I have no doubt we are heading towards a reccesion, we were due to have one some years ago but with gov spending (stimulis) etc. It has been delayed. In 25 years my order book has never been so empty (I'm a small to medium commercial builder)
There is a lot of TALK about the boom, but I think it's all Swan and Gilliard spin to be honest.
I will be OK as I'm not over extended with debt etc, but I fear for the peolple that live week to week to pay off the mortgage..
I hope I'm wrong
giddy up Sundance
i got a few bob on sdl, rio, bhp, nab and amp
tossing up whether to sell, but prefer these for the long term,
The only thing we have to worry about is China.
If it turns out China's miracle is just another ponzi scheme for party dictated growth... then we're in so much trouble it aint funny.
If the music keeps playing there... just remember it's our resources building China, and the trinkets we value so much.
Japan got hit hard by that Earth mover of a quake, and they'll be ramping up production at the end of summer.
Most Australians are max'ed out or waiting it out... so growth is doubtful. But agriculture, energy and mining will keep us above water.
I've been hedging my bets for a while so I never really make much or lose much... it's been about wealth preservation.
on Glen Beck programme few weeks back he had Jim Rogers on for an hour talking about the coming great depression.
both agreed,Glen said another 5 months to start really biting.
time to stock up on food,tins can last years,so can dried food.
some aboriginals can survive off the land,not many others.
we take food in supermarkets as guaranteed to always be there,supermarkets could be cleaned out in hours if what predicted arrives.
heard other week of house that was bought in Applecross for $8m at peak was recently valued at $4.6m.
a few more years,certainly within the next 5/10 year period, they might get half a
million if lucky.
can easily see silver hitting $150 an ounce.
www.henrymakow.com/why_are_lessons_of_1998_mini-c.html
Since about 2005 and the next 50 years its going to so something like this:
1. demand for oil increases
2. supply is restricted as we are using more oil than we are finding the world's supergiant fields are all in decline
3. price of oil goes up (>$100/bbl, which would have been unthinkable as few as 13 years ago when it was ~$10/bbl)
4. economy slows down
5. price of oil eases (new higher "basement" price though)
6. go back to 1
We need to get off this treadmill, but the the longer it goes the harder it will be as through each cycle the overall cost of oil will go up, which increases all energy costs across the board, including investment in non-fossil fuel energy sources, which also have a much lower EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). Which is to be expected in a capitalist society - the most profitable (highest EROEI) energy sources were developed first - which also generally means they'll be (fully) consumed first.
Mark Faber has awesome accent, has been pretty accurate with his forecasts and has good quotes
We are in the ditch [septic] and being run/held under by immature people on
both sides.. and yes ....we voted for this 
...play the last post now.......
