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La Nina

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Created by Mr float > 9 months ago, 13 Jul 2011
Mr float
NSW, 3452 posts
13 Jul 2011 8:28AM
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It looks like we might not have seen the last of the la ninas that we have been getting .Things are kind of neutral to slightly negative which is usual after a big event but are not trending to positive .Please please please no more . it looks like an ECL could form early next week bringing havoc to northern NSW and possibly right along the nSW coast.Lets hope not .

suface2air
QLD, 701 posts
13 Jul 2011 8:42AM
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sucks what else can be said

SUPSurferQLD
QLD, 318 posts
13 Jul 2011 11:17AM
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Mr float said...

It looks like we might not have seen the last of the la ninas that we have been getting .Things are kind of neutral to slightly negative which is usual after a big event but are not trending to positive .Please please please no more . it looks like an ECL could form early next week bringing havoc to northern NSW and possibly right along the nSW coast.Lets hope not .


If you can make any sense of it, information on the El Nino/La Nina:

www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

This also explains it well:



What I understand: La Nina may continue into spring, but a repeat of the severe events such as in 2010/ early 2011 are extremely unlikely. Therefore better wind season for Eastern Aus 2012, *hopefully*.

BennyB12
QLD, 918 posts
13 Jul 2011 1:07PM
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If its the same as last season im gonna neck myself.... Ive started rock climbing to compensate, even bought a pair of those horrible little shoes and started to say words like crag and dynamic moves.... Enoughs enuff la nina, I want my old life back...

WillyO
QLD, 263 posts
13 Jul 2011 3:15PM
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Select to expand quote

What I understand: La Nina may continue into spring, but a repeat of the severe events such as in 2010/ early 2011 are extremely unlikely. Therefore better wind season for Eastern Aus 2012, *hopefully*.



Pleeeeeeease let this be true! I cant do another season without NE'ers

WillyO
QLD, 263 posts
13 Jul 2011 3:21PM
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BennyB12 said...

If its the same as last season im gonna neck myself.... Ive started rock climbing to compensate, even bought a pair of those horrible little shoes and started to say words like crag and dynamic moves.... Enoughs enuff la nina, I want my old life back...



It could be worse, you could be walking round in equally horrible shoes, sporting the latest in fluoro lycra and sipping on skinny lattes at the local cafe after your 'big' morning ride.

LostinSpace
QLD, 388 posts
14 Jul 2011 1:43AM
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Select to expand quote
It could be worse, you could be walking round in equally horrible shoes, sporting the latest in fluoro lycra and sipping on skinny lattes at the local cafe after your 'big' morning ride.


You mean, the latest fluoro lycra with pretend sponsorship logos written all over them, don't you Willyo

SUPSurferQLD
QLD, 318 posts
15 Jul 2011 9:44AM
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BennyB12 said...

If its the same as last season im gonna neck myself.... Ive started rock climbing to compensate, even bought a pair of those horrible little shoes and started to say words like crag and dynamic moves.... Enoughs enuff la nina, I want my old life back...


I too have tried similar activities to sap the boredom.

Nothing compares to the adrenaline/thrill/freedom of boosting hard and flying high.

Infact, what other sport ACTUALLY compares to kiting? If you find anything, let me know.

Paul1
QLD, 1011 posts
15 Jul 2011 10:13AM
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Errrrr...surfing maybe......

wal269
WA, 718 posts
15 Jul 2011 2:07PM
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I was told it would be a 2 yr event by a meteorologist(spellcheck).....but everyone knows you can't trust those b@stards.

Mr float
NSW, 3452 posts
15 Jul 2011 4:32PM
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wal269 said...

I was told it would be a 2 yr event by a meteorologist(spellcheck).....but everyone knows you can't trust those b@stards.


Be careful what you say here re BOM .I have been stalked by red thumbers for years if I dare to question their authority in matters meteorological

suface2air
QLD, 701 posts
15 Jul 2011 4:42PM
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shut the hell up wal269 remember this is a public forum and swearing like that will not be tolerated (2yr event ) that is so not fair and would suck serverly suck

Tony
WA, 67 posts
15 Jul 2011 2:52PM
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Great Video (along with the other thousand on the same topic), even I now have a basic understanding of how both the El nino and la nina work. What I don't understand is what are we to experience here on the west coast of Ozz, everything seems to provide explanations for patterns at South America and East coast of Ozz and Indonesia?
How does all this nino/a **** change my summer afternoons with the Fremantle Doctor?

Any help?

Mr float
NSW, 3452 posts
15 Jul 2011 5:39PM
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Mr float said...

wal269 said...

I was told it would be a 2 yr event by a meteorologist(spellcheck).....but everyone knows you can't trust those b@stards.


Be careful what you say here re BOM .I have been stalked by red thumbers for years if I dare to question their authority in matters meteorological


See one hour and 6 mins and my post is well into red thumb territory

Mr float
NSW, 3452 posts
15 Jul 2011 6:11PM
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Tony said...

Great Video (along with the other thousand on the same topic), even I now have a basic understanding of how both the El nino and la nina work. What I don't understand is what are we to experience here on the west coast of Ozz, everything seems to provide explanations for patterns at South America and East coast of Ozz and Indonesia?
How does all this nino/a **** change my summer afternoons with the Fremantle Doctor?

Any help?


It has worldwide ramifications .EC oz is generally more affected than WC oz . i am pretty sure that one driver of your weather and indeed inland SE Australia (ie SW NSW and Vic ) is the Indian Ocean Dipole which sets up neg with cooler water off the horn of Africa and warmer water off NW WA which led to good rains NW wa over summer and helped SE oz particularly Victoria get a double whammy effect from the neg IOD and La Nina .I am not exactly sure what it means for the winds in SW WA . I have a feeling that whatever is going on with the polar vortex is your main driver . It seems that things are drier in SW WA in a neg IOD as the winds and moisture is streaming in from the Indian ocean further to your north.Maybe there is a WA weather guru lurking .You could also check out Ian Holtons weather .He seems pretty clued up and many farmers seem happy to actually pay him for his forecasts www.holtonweather.com/

Reflex Films
WA, 1447 posts
15 Jul 2011 4:31PM
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i have to wonder if the warmer sea temps around sw oz and nz are creating all this extra moisture as fronts swing past

Perth has been getting old school tropical rain as the fronts approach - they seem to ramp up and dump moisture as the fronts get near the coast

maybe its cool air meeting the unusually warm water

same deal for NZ snow which went nuts as soon as they got lined up by some fronts - apparently they have record warm sea temps as well

andrewm
WA, 243 posts
15 Jul 2011 4:57PM
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Tony said...

Great Video (along with the other thousand on the same topic), even I now have a basic understanding of how both the El nino and la nina work. What I don't understand is what are we to experience here on the west coast of Ozz, everything seems to provide explanations for patterns at South America and East coast of Ozz and Indonesia?
How does all this nino/a **** change my summer afternoons with the Fremantle Doctor?

Any help?


Last summer I recall

SW were not that consistent even up until December
January was pretty bad, few 4-5 day long dry spells
February was a nightmare…
March – April were OK

Guess much of the same for this summer

TurtleHunter
WA, 1675 posts
15 Jul 2011 8:57PM
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up this way it was completely different to any other year i have seen (last 15 years)
Humidity was off the scale and winds followed suit. In the past we could expect up to a month of seabreezes before a break of 1 to 3 days with a common shift of one week of seabreeze and 3 days max of nothing. Last year we only ever had 4 days of seabreeze followed by about 3 or 4 day's of northerly winds. Sure there was wind but there is nothing like a thermal seabreeze. It's looking pretty similar this year too I reckon.

Weta
WA, 893 posts
15 Jul 2011 10:00PM
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La Nina 2010-2011 brought some different conditions to normal from memory....

1st good SW after a disappointing winter was mid September
Headed north for some seabreeze end of Sept early Oct. got 5+ days of good seabreeze before a strong NE front that developed into a the first of many easterly weather patterns. (correct me if im wrong)

Back in perth October was okay as was November
Towards the end of December i thought the doctor was finally coming in after having 3-4 consecutive days of good SW SB.

Had some great sessions down south late December.

Jan was pretty good. Feb was a shocker & i got 8 straight days in March.

Wind was more from South than SW last season.

Wasn't the best season for SB but there was still plenty of wind.

snorton
WA, 87 posts
15 Jul 2011 10:07PM
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La Nina = strong Leeuwin current down West coast and warmer waters
Could this mean a smaller gradient between ocean and land temp which drive our thermal seabreezes?

NJPornstar
WA, 790 posts
16 Jul 2011 11:06AM
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The last few years have been less windy and that seems to have been the same all over OZ.
During summer, good wind can be found in WA. The el nino slows the Leeuwin, so there's an extra windy season in Gero with hopefully 3m ground swell

TurtleHunter
WA, 1675 posts
16 Jul 2011 11:49AM
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snorton said...

La Nina = strong Leeuwin current down West coast and warmer waters
Could this mean a smaller gradient between ocean and land temp which drive our thermal seabreezes?


Yep thats what it felt like plus all that warm water left many areas of coral bleaching on the ningaloo reef and allowed cyclones to push further down the coast (at least you guy's down south got to enjoy some cyclone swells)

DaCurls
WA, 134 posts
16 Jul 2011 7:29PM
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wasn't too bad a season, channel busting a few times at the point, rather have inconsistant wind periods and thumping swell when it is windy as apposed to small sets and howlin

COL
NSW, 551 posts
17 Jul 2011 5:32PM
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Tomorrow's a mystery.
Yesterday's history.
Today is a gift, that's why they call it the present.

This is one hell winter for NSW I reckon. My 50yo carcass has been gettin' hammered. Just enjoy it.
cheers
Col



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"La Nina" started by Mr float