Search for a Location
  Clear Recents
Metro
South West
Central West
North West
  Surf Cameras
  Safety Bay Camera
Metro
North
Mid North
Illawarra
South Coast
Metro
West Coast
East Coast
Brisbane
Far North
Central Coast
Sunshine Coast
Gold Coast
Hobart
West Coast
North Coast
East Coast
Recent
Western Australia
New South Wales
Victoria
South Australia
Queensland
Northern Territory
Tasmania
  My Favourites
  Reverse Arrows
General
Gps & Speed Sailing
Wave Sailing
Foiling
Gear Reviews
Lost & Found
Windsurfing WA
Windsurfing NSW
Windsurfing QLD
Windsurfing Victoria
Windsurfing SA
Windsurfing Tasmania
General
Gear Reviews
Foiling
Newbies / Tips & Tricks
Lost & Found
Western Australia
New South Wales
Queensland
Victoria
South Australia
Tasmania
General
Foiling
Board Talk & Reviews
Wing Foiling
All
Windsurfing
Kitesurfing
Surfing
Longboarding
Stand Up Paddle
Wing Foiling
Sailing
  Active Topics
  Subscribed Topics
  Rules & Guidelines
Login
Lost My Details!
Join! (Its Free)
  Search for a Location
  Clear Recents
Metro
South West
Central West
North West
Surf Cameras
Safety Bay Camera
Metro
North
Mid North
Illawarra
South Coast
Metro
West Coast
East Coast
Brisbane
Far North
Central Coast
Sunshine Coast
Gold Coast
Hobart
West Coast
North Coast
East Coast
Recent
Western Australia
New South Wales
Victoria
South Australia
Queensland
Northern Territory
Tasmania
  My Favourites
  Reverse Arrows
All
Windsurfing
Kitesurfing
Surfing
Longboarding
Stand Up Paddle
Wing Foiling
Sailing
Active Topics
Subscribed Topics
Forum Rules
Login
Lost My Details!
Join! (Its Free)

Forums > Stand Up Paddle General

East Coast - how big is it going to get???

Reply
Created by Ali Cat > 9 months ago, 5 Jun 2012
Ali Cat
QLD, 1205 posts
5 Jun 2012 5:42PM
Thumbs Up

Well there's still a day or so before the front hits QLD but you guys down south look like you're copping it big time already!

I was just looking at the raw wave buoy data (from Manly Hydraulics Lab) for Eden and it looks like the significant wave height (offshore) has reached about 7.5m (with max height over 9m!). A quick look at the historical data for the past 33 years at Eden (below) indicates a maximum significant wave height of 7.31m, so could this swell be breaking records?

With winds topping 126km/hr (68knots) at Wattamolla, just south of Sydney, an hour ago it will be interesting to see how big the swell is when it hits Sydney seeing as the Port Kembla buoy is offline and the Batemans Bay one stopped working at 6m.




goatman
NSW, 2151 posts
5 Jun 2012 5:54PM
Thumbs Up

Not sure how they measure it for the records Ali but we get quite a few swells a year that reach over 7meters on the max swell height in Sydney. Have seen over 10 meters max last couple of years.

Looking at the forecasts it will come up quick and die quick but linger for a while. Might get some 2- 3 times overhead the next couple of days in a few select spots but prob too much wind tomorrow.

Check this chart from 2010, we have a surprising amount of surfable spots when is this big:



Scotty88
4214 posts
5 Jun 2012 4:02PM
Thumbs Up

"That's the lemon next to the pie".

What day is it tomorrow ?

Ali Cat
QLD, 1205 posts
5 Jun 2012 6:04PM
Thumbs Up

goatman said...

Not sure how they measure it for the records Ali but we get a few swells a year that reach over 7meters on the max swell height. Have seen over 10 meters max last couple of years.


Hey Goatie, the "records" are based on the maximum significant wave height (Hsig) which is a better measure of the underlying swell rather than a rogue wave (Hmax) - not really sure why they so it that way. For Sydney they've had the data recording for about 20years and the record/maximum Hsig is 8.43m, compared to just over 6m in your example, (so the corresponding max could have been up around 16m?).

Anyway enough of the nerdy stuff, i'm looking forward to seeing pics of the swell if the rain/wind stops long enough for anyone to get outside.

Not sure if it'll break the record this time but it might get close?

BulldogPup
6657 posts
5 Jun 2012 4:19PM
Thumbs Up

Scotty88 said...

"That's the lemon next to the pie".

What day is it tomorrow ?


Jen sday




Scotty88
4214 posts
5 Jun 2012 4:23PM
Thumbs Up

BulldogPup said...

Scotty88 said...

"That's the lemon next to the pie".

What day is it tomorrow ?


Jen sday


You wish

It could be a fat baloons day.

BulldogPup
6657 posts
5 Jun 2012 4:24PM
Thumbs Up

so its the lemon instead of the pie

Piros
QLD, 7045 posts
5 Jun 2012 6:35PM
Thumbs Up

Where is it ? no signs on Goldie yet....[}:)]

rahams
NSW, 544 posts
5 Jun 2012 6:43PM
Thumbs Up

Piros said...

Where is it ? no signs on Goldie yet....[}:)]


Smaller this arvo than yesterday here

CMC
QLD, 3954 posts
5 Jun 2012 6:44PM
Thumbs Up

As always I am hesitant to even guess how big this swell might be.

Could be 2 feet could be 8. When it's so south like this one it seems to depend upon the will of god of whether it decides to bend around Byron or not.

The High pressure system moving over us so quickly will fizzle it fast I reckon.

AA
NSW, 2159 posts
5 Jun 2012 7:31PM
Thumbs Up

Just hit Sydney around 6pm



Simondo
VIC, 8020 posts
5 Jun 2012 7:38PM
Thumbs Up

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_tropswpac&prod=sgwvht&dtg=2012060500&set=SeaState

As per CMC, a heap of south in it... To me it seems like it will be very stormy surf. Big storm front, Low is fairly close to shore...

Our good swells in Vicco come from the deep south around the edge of Antarctica, and the worst of the storm is 2,000km away...

Here's a great overview of the Winter Roaring Forties. They are roaring at the moment! (Red bits are roaring storms in the roaring forties!)
www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ww3_glo&prod=sgwvht&dtg=2012060500&set=SeaState

goatman
NSW, 2151 posts
5 Jun 2012 8:47PM
Thumbs Up

Ali Cat said...

goatman said...

Not sure how they measure it for the records Ali but we get a few swells a year that reach over 7meters on the max swell height. Have seen over 10 meters max last couple of years.


Hey Goatie, the "records" are based on the maximum significant wave height (Hsig) which is a better measure of the underlying swell rather than a rogue wave (Hmax) - not really sure why they so it that way. For Sydney they've had the data recording for about 20years and the record/maximum Hsig is 8.43m, compared to just over 6m in your example, (so the corresponding max could have been up around 16m?).

Anyway enough of the nerdy stuff, i'm looking forward to seeing pics of the swell if the rain/wind stops long enough for anyone to get outside.

Not sure if it'll break the record this time but it might get close?



Interesting stuff eh! I guess it's the 'rogue' ones that get you though. I know period length is the most important ingredient, in fact a 3-6 meter swell with a 14-15 sec period will provide far better quality than a 6-9 meter 9 sec like we will prob get tonight/tomorrow (lots of wind as well!). I'm not too excited about this one.

As someone else said the best swells eminate from thousands of kays away and this one is too close initially. We get a second pulse here on the weekend which is a lot 'smaller' but longer period (14-15 sec).

Should be waves for the comps on the weekend though

Flounder
QLD, 137 posts
5 Jun 2012 9:28PM
Thumbs Up

Forget the swell. Tomorrow could be one of the best downwind days of the year on the Gold Coast!! It's all about swell direction up here anyway. A 5 foot east swell usually means bigger surf than a 20 foot South swell. On the ENE facing points like Currumbin etc anyway...

goatman
NSW, 2151 posts
5 Jun 2012 9:35PM
Thumbs Up

Flounder said...

It's all about swell direction up here anyway. A 5 foot east swell usually means bigger surf than a 20 foot South swell. On the ENE facing points like Currumbin etc anyway...



One of the great things about living down here is we have breaks that face every direction from North to dead south, gives plenty of options with the huge variation in swell direction we all get here on the east coast.

Down winding will be insane tomorrow though, shame about work[}:)]

maxeaus
NSW, 326 posts
5 Jun 2012 9:39PM
Thumbs Up

Simondo said...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_tropswpac&prod=sgwvht&dtg=2012060500&set=SeaState

As per CMC, a heap of south in it... To me it seems like it will be very stormy surf. Big storm front, Low is fairly close to shore...

Our good swells in Vicco come from the deep south around the edge of Antarctica, and the worst of the storm is 2,000km away...

Here's a great overview of the Winter Roaring Forties. They are roaring at the moment! (Red bits are roaring storms in the roaring forties!)
www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ww3_glo&prod=sgwvht&dtg=2012060500&set=SeaState




Flounder said...

Forget the swell. Tomorrow could be one of the best downwind days of the year on the Gold Coast!! It's all about swell direction up here anyway. A 5 foot east swell usually means bigger surf than a 20 foot South swell. On the ENE facing points like Currumbin etc anyway...







Anyone fancy a downwinder then?

Shouldn't take long to downwind from Sydney back up to the central coast.

Actually could be a few novelty spots like Balmoral/Clontarf point, Neilsen park and Fairlight reef Worth a look tomorrow, i know a sneaky spot up here ill be looking at.

jedijunglsno
NSW, 231 posts
6 Jun 2012 9:44AM
Thumbs Up

Should have seen the view looking out over Middle Harbout to the Heads this morning.

Guys were out surfing 4 foot Wyargine Point off of Chinamans Beach!

Starlet gc
NSW, 374 posts
6 Jun 2012 11:35AM
Thumbs Up

It's starting to pick up here ... Was just checking it during work. Looks 4f with some bigger ones. It's jumped from barely 2 f this morning. Some locals are calling it to peak at 8f later this afternoon and into tomorrow!

Ali Cat
QLD, 1205 posts
6 Jun 2012 12:01PM
Thumbs Up

It's can't be far off making it to QLD (even if you have to look out the horizon to see the Southerly swell rolling past). Looks like its made it to Byron now.


maxeaus
NSW, 326 posts
6 Jun 2012 12:09PM
Thumbs Up

Its nuts out at Broken Bay on the high tide, bommies and rogue waves everywhere, the channel marker for the entrance to Brisbane waters is now about 100 metres off the beach at Ettalong after being washed in overnight.

The only nutter out is a a kitesurfer.

Scotty88
4214 posts
6 Jun 2012 10:13AM
Thumbs Up

I don't understand all these graphs. Starting to make me feel dizzy and reminds me of hospital or that polygraph I took back in ........ Hope it doesn't flatline.
Too complicating, just tell me is it triple over head ? - keep it simple.

Scotty88
4214 posts
6 Jun 2012 11:57AM
Thumbs Up

^^^^^^That's ok goaty. Looks quadruple over head or is that a graph showing the influx of boat refugees on Gillards watch compared to John Howards.

surfershaneA
863 posts
6 Jun 2012 4:14PM
Thumbs Up

I got caught in the middle of it last night on the yacht in what turned out to be a not so protected cove. Thats the first and hopefully the last time I will see spume blowing acrosd whitecaps.

If you want to know how big it was maybe ask someone who took the Manly ferry this morning. I reckon I saw a couple climbing and plowing through six metre swells. I couldn't undrrstand why they did not cancel those services.

The swell and weather does seem to be abating fairly quick.

laceys lane
QLD, 19803 posts
6 Jun 2012 7:02PM
Thumbs Up

geez phone calls, text messages were coming in thick and fast today for dw runs

i got really good typing in working.

looks like it stayed mostly off shore

Downwinder
QLD, 2031 posts
6 Jun 2012 7:32PM
Thumbs Up

laceys lane said...

geez phone calls, text messages were coming in thick and fast today for dw runs

i got really good typing in working.

looks like it stayed mostly off shore


Condition would have been puss for a DW paddle today to much West in the Wind. But the Alley was bulk fun for a surf today from 3:00pm till dark got some nice ones ended up way down near 3rd Ave.
Cloudbreak should be in the 15ft range come Friday and with No Wind. Restaurants will be just Pumping for the VOLCUM PRO

Ted the Kiwi
NSW, 14256 posts
6 Jun 2012 7:38PM
Thumbs Up

Downwinder said...
Cloudbreak should be in the 15ft range come Friday and with No Wind. Restaurants will be just Pumping for the VOLCUM PRO


Nope - make them paddle out at Cloudbreak in some size!!!!!!!

paul.j
QLD, 3356 posts
7 Jun 2012 1:15PM
Thumbs Up

Downwinder said...

laceys lane said...

geez phone calls, text messages were coming in thick and fast today for dw runs

i got really good typing in working.

looks like it stayed mostly off shore


Condition would have been puss for a DW paddle today to much West in the Wind. But the Alley was bulk fun for a surf today from 3:00pm till dark got some nice ones ended up way down near 3rd Ave.
Cloudbreak should be in the 15ft range come Friday and with No Wind. Restaurants will be just Pumping for the VOLCUM PRO




It was only puss if you didn't think out side the square!!!

Tractorguy
TAS, 542 posts
7 Jun 2012 2:41PM
Thumbs Up

Looks like you southerners have ground hog day for wed next week. Northen beachies should be smoking.


Scotty88
4214 posts
7 Jun 2012 1:48PM
Thumbs Up

^^^^^^^^^More bloody graphs.

Edit: I'll show you a bloody graf.





Subscribe
Reply

Forums > Stand Up Paddle General


"East Coast - how big is it going to get???" started by Ali Cat