So would Elliot Heads be a good spot to go for this weekend, or is that not high enough up the coast
it will be windy but nothing spectacular. i'd be heading for yepoon...... it will be ****ing intense sailing there.
i checked out the auswave model on the bom, they have 15m waves so i guess the tidal surge will be big.
I can't say for sure, but it's as far north as I want to go.
Undoubtably it will be windier, or at least more reliably windy at Yeppoon, but it's too far.
I just got back from 6 weeks away from home yesterday, so even heading off for 2 days will tax me. I spent all day yesterday on planes trains and automobiles.
NOt sure about the weekend. I think I'll head up Wed morning, sail,stay over, sail and then come home.
Need to get some new tyres on my van today, and organise some stuff, and I'll decide in the morning, after checking the charts.
If it's not amazingly promising, I'll probably pike.
looks like cairns is now in the firing line. willis island obs will be interesting to watch as the cyclone will pass almost right over.
IDQ20008
PAN PAN
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1913UTC 31 JANUARY 2011
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi was centred within 35 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal six south (13.6S)
longitude one hundred and fifty eight decimal four east (158.4E)
Recent movement : west at 22 knots
Maximum winds : 85 knots
Central pressure: 960 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 220 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 300 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 300 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 160 nautical miles in NW quadrant.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 85 knots near the centre increasing to 100 knots by 1800 UTC01 February.
Winds above 64 knots within 70 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 100 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 90 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 30 nautical miles in NW quadrant with phenomenal seas.
Winds above 48 knots within 110 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 150 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 140 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in NW quadrant with high to very high seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Winds above 34 knots within 220 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 300 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 300 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 160 nautical miles in NW quadrant with very rough seas and
moderate to heavy swell.
Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 01 February: Within 65 nautical miles of 14.3 south 154.9 east
Central pressure 949 hPa.
Winds to 95 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 01 February: Within 95 nautical miles of 15.4 south 151.5 east
Central pressure 944 hPa.
Winds to 100 knots near centre.
looks like yasi is now starting her SW run.
www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
i'm starting to feel not so sure about cairns being the landfall anymore. with the latest movement on the satelites it's starting to look like townsville area again. only time will tell i guess. the next track map is out this arvo and it should give a better idea.that said, ecmwf which is extremely fgood at predicting these things is saying cardwell still.
updated track map still saying cairns.
yeah, 15m, sorry, i wasn't inferring yeppoon getting that. it was the eye region of the cyclone getting 10-15m on the model predictions.
speaking of swell, this is just out from your place sausage.
Look at the edge of that swirl just smashing the tip of Fraser Island.
Thats's the windiest spot.
cat 4 now and strengthening.
willis isalnd radar is starting to feel the outskirts also.
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94299.shtml
I did a P&O cruise with some friends a couple of yrs ago from Bri - Cairns via Willis Is and couldnt beleive this little tiny island in the middle of no where wondering where could people shelter in the event like the one now. 
Perhaps they evacuate the island and switch the wheather station on auto
Yeah, I knew you would pick up on that. I thought about that later after I posted and realised I was in error. I was thinking of high pressure systems, where the centre is calm, and the edge is windy.
I had not thought of that difference between highs and lows before. I wonder why that is, since they are both revolving, and the outside of a wheel has to move faster than the middle to complete a revolution in the same time.
Maybe it has something to do with the unique architecture of a cyclone, which may make it behave differently to a low. A faster revolving centre would have the effect of screwing everything tighter together, while the edges trail behind.
I'm too knackered to do the drive anyway, so I'm piking and staying at home.
I need to give you a call about slalom fins too.
@ sausage, yeah the size is extreme..... i've been reading reports of 100km eye plus winds are currently 230km/hr and intensifying. storm surge is 6-7m but need to account for tide so i think that translates to 3m
oh my god!
@ qldr, i believe willis was evacuated. probably won't be anything left of it after the cyclone.
@ ken, that's opposite to me. i hadn't realised highs are windier on the perimeter. but that makes a lot of sense. yeah, the cyclone is warm cored so the winds get stronger in the middle as they twist up the core and get exhausted out the top. all cyclones need upper level highs over them to exhaust correctly or wind sheer burns them out.
i got this link from another site. it's worth the watch and explains a lot. it is very concerning. i am really worried for the guys up in north queensland. especially those south of the centre as that is where the biggest damage is most likely to occur. this video also provides links to important websites.
re the youtube evening upgrade - i've never heard someone say so much in one breath
invisible tornados in the mix too?
the tornado thing is just frightening. the bands of the cyclones are pretty much a series of thunderstorms feeding into the middle of the system.
from memory wasn't there comments about tornadoes or something with cyclone larry? not sure anyways.
Thanks for that excellent link Gesty.
I cam never find stuff like that.
I'm booked to fly to Ingham on the 10th for a few days work. I wonder if I'll need my snorkel to find it.
ABout the high being windy on the edge, I realised that a few years ago when I saw a thing about round-the-world sailors heading way down into the Southern Ocean to get to the edge of our highs to get across the Pacific and not get caught in the doldrums.
That's why they run into ice, like that bloke who had to be rescued a few years ago.
Highs down south = windy up north.
what a good link gest - this reopens a running complaint of mine - I watched surise this morning & the coverage was crap - they didnt say sweet FA - they focus on being "close to the action" speaking to people about how firghtened they are and how they feel, and getting them to say they were scared ****less in the last cyclone - this guy in 12 minutes imparted a wealth of useful and accurate information. It is a discrace. the media in this country assumes everyone is retarded, and obscures the useful infomation with bollocks and chinese whispers -you know - one commentator repeats what some one said & is repeated by another until they are all shaking their heads and trying to outdo each other with adjectives about incredible unbelievable etcetc - and of course it is, cos its horsepoo.
check out the willis island radar. the eye is about to pass. winds are currently gusting to 97knots, pressure is 957 plus it's now cat5 and massive
www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR413.loop.shtml#skip
I'm so worried and praying for all my rellies in home town Cairns 
. Double the size of cyclone Tracy and she flattened Darwin.
Currently unavailable due to, it's been blown into smithereens !!!
I agree with the beef above about the pathetic weather reports.
28 and sunny does not really say much.
That was a superb run-down on clonics.
Yeah, but Cairns will be all built to W54 or thereabout.
At Bundaberg we had to build to W52, which is 52m/sec wind speed. I think Bris is more like W28, though Gestalt or the other construction guys here will know for sure. The engineering involved in W52 is substantial so the homes will not go down like they did in Darwin.
The bigger issue here will be the storm surge, more so than the wind.
Inland towns like Atherton etc won't be built to the same cyclone rating though, and there are a lot of older homes there too.
. Double the size of cyclone Tracy and she flattened Darwin.
. Double the size of cyclone Tracy and she flattened Darwin.
. Double the size of cyclone Tracy and she flattened Darwin.
top post's gestalt. thank you.
We all love wind but what this system is throwing up is mind boggling. To all seabreezers out there affected by this system best of luck, please be safe.
