I am wondering if there are any veteran Far North QLD kiteboarders or locals that can verify stronger trade winds occur when a La Nina pattern is established (As is the case now). Reports suggest this pattern may hold out until about June before the SOI drops to neutral.
Do the stronger trade winds bring in more showers from the southeast? Or do they reduce the amount of showers as the ocean is cooler under these conditions. I'm refering to Cairns in particular.
Cheers
I know here in PNG the La Nina means a longer wet season thus a shorter windy season.
but as to the quality/strength of the wind i am not 100%. But i would assume that the colder ocean temps will reduce the strength of the SE trades.
certainly the central pacific gets better trade winds in a La nina year. Fiji & Tonga should have a great season.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/zw/zw_850.html
During La Nina a surface low pressure develops over the region of Northern Australia and Indo and a high pressure system in the east over the coast of Peru, so the easterly trades over the Pacific are strong (compoared to during El Nino). So the warm surface water current moving from east to west is strong, meaning warmer water to northern Australia...so more rain (convective stroms formation)... So yeah, trades in FNQ should be stronger...unless the increased storm action kills them near the coast.
But this warm water goes south in the East Australia Current and warmer water around Sth East Qlds means less of a sea land temperature gradient so less sea breezes... I think most of the wind they've had this season has been frontal...rather than sea breezes.
I am heading to Stradbroke Island (I know it's not exactly FNQ) in late April - is there any likelyhood of a kiteable breeze?
Excellent description of what is going on
I'm on the central coast nsw, we have had very warm surface temps this summer. There have a lot less strong ne seabreezes this seaon than normal. All my best sessions have been on frontal se winds this summer. There have however been alot more fronts moving through than normal. Generally at least 2 per week. But overall this season has been mediocre, It would seem this is a result of la nina.
Hey Mick
I don't have a real great deal of technical knowledge on the weather my opinion is based on my experiences of sailboarding and now kiteboarding Cairns for the past 18 years.
The warmer the ocean come about March/April when the SE trades kick back in the more you can expect rain. Any forecast above 25 knots during Mar, Apr and May you can expect squally showers and often unpredictable wind at the beaches. The reef (green island etc) will get the wind as forecast. As the season kicks on and the water begins to cool the SE trades start kicking in without the rain. Come June onwards to as late as Oct/Nov you can expect the wind without the rain.
It can be frustrating early in the season when the forecast is a constant strong wind warning and due to showers etc there can often be no wind at the beach. Head out to sea and its blowing its ring out. It is also not uncommon for the trades to just follow each other and the forecast to never really drop below 20 knots for weeks on end.
Mind you the last two seasons have been the worst I have experienced in 18 years as the wind is there but so is the rain. The numbers of locals and visitors have really dropped off because of the ordinary seasons we have experienced.
Even Jan/Feb a high or two sneaks through and we get a week of wind for each of these months but this year I haven't kited at all and I have had a brand new kite just itching to get out. Now that is frustrating. In fact the last kite I had was late Dec.
I don't want to be a killjoy but Cairns can be very fickle, yet other years it has not been uncommon to kite 5 days a week with sun and good wind (20+ knots) for the whole season.Lets hope this year is going to be good....... So far it hasn'r stopped raining.
Cheers
I'm sure a quick call to BoM could sort this question one way or other.....
...however my observations as a marine biologist working around Townsville and along the reef up to Lizard Island since 87, would be that there seems to be more frequent and stronger trades in the El Nino (dry/drought) years than in the wet La Nina years.
I seem to remember the dry years between 92-95 and 2002-04 as pretty windy, with weeks and weeks of 20-30knot SE winds and frequent strong wind warnings. There were little lighter breaks in between but they were short lived.
Last couple of years we have had very few days on Magnetic Island with wind consistently above 25 knots, and the pattern is generally a week long burst of 15-20kn SE about once a month with 10-15kn winds in between.
There is a strong latitudinal trend though - from Cooktown/Lizard north, the SE blows pretty solid from April-September regardless of the year, its just a question of whether its 20-30knots or 30-40 knots.
Andy
