The BOM is forecasting a El Nino event for the East coast of Australia. What effect if any does an El Nino event have on wind speeds?
In normal terms it looks as though the SST (Sea Surface Temps) are going to cool and the mean land temp increase.
In theory this should create greater convection around coastal areas and produce stronger localized sea breezes.
www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino.shtml
Not sure if we are in EI Nino been getting plenty of rain here for winter ive recorded 979mm in the last six months here at Wellington Point I think the eggsperts don't have a clue.
its got something to do with the wind blowing from both directions with rain from the south and sunshine from the west
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It generally means we get strong high pressure systems parked over Australia so good for sea breezes not good for cold fronts pushing through.
I've done some research using the data base of postings on KA72. Using the criteria of a minimum recorded 2 sec speed of 25kts on the day to define a sailing day, I've compared the number of sailing days per month at Wellington Point, Qld, during the months of September through January for years from 2009 to 2014. The best year was 2013, which is described by BOM as a neutral year (neither El Nino or La Nina) where we averaged 18 sailing days per month. The worst year was 2009, which was the last strong El Nino which averaged 12 sailing days per month, this may be because there were less sailors posting to KA72 back then. 2011, which was the last strong La Nina had an average 15 sailing days per month. I'll keep running figures for 2015, to see how they compare.
Im looking forward to the strong warm northerlys every arvo but there is a good chance glynn is right those weather guys just seem to make things up
In the last strong Elino event in 2006/07 we got a lot of westerly wind pattern and had a lot of sailing in Sep-Dec, but the summer was hot. I think you get mainly N followed by a W change, the only thing is the westerly change is quite dry, not a lot of rain in it. Quite harsh in land.
In NSW at least El Nino events usually mean high pressure systems slowly drift across the Pacific Ocean towards Australia, when they pass New Zealand the NE seabreezes start up and get progressively stronger over a four days or more.
Local weather guru said blocking highs are a feature of El Nino- mmm that's why we haven't had any decent fronts this spring + rain had been below normal..
