Australia Bushfires - man made disaster?

TheTruth is we are only at the beginning of the fire season and so far there are

* 500 Million animals dead
* 8.4 Million hectares burnt
* 350 Million tonnes - of carbon dioxide dumped into the atmosphere
* Fires are likely to burn for months to come.
The one big positive in this is that the loss of human life has been minimal.

The"Dad's Army", volunteer, approach to firefighting days are numbered - it's failed.

What's wrong with you Chris? Why can't you see that?

^^ Suppose we reduce our emissions to zero. Then what?

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TheTruth said..
TheTruth is we are only at the beginning of the fire season and so far there are

* 500 Million animals dead
* 8.4 Million hectares burnt
* 350 million tonnes - of carbon dioxide dumped into the atmosphere
* Fires are likely to burn for months to come.

The"Dad's Army", volunteer, approach to firefighting days are numbered - it's failed.

What's wrong with you Chris? Why can't you see that?

I can't see that because as professionals like Kato are telling you, your ideas are stupid and ignore reality. It's bizarre that someone can be such a moron as to, for example, apparently be unaware that fires don't go to bed and therefore you need to fight them at night, when firebombers are problematic.

It's hateful when some vile slimeball abuses volunteers who are risking their lives while filth like you are bashing them as "dads army running into each other". We need people on the ground and revolting swine like you shouldn't insult them from your coward's keyboard.

I don't need any lectures about how bad this fire season has been, thanks.

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Chris 249 said..
Thank you, Dr Surf!

The other thing that people are ignoring is that fires of this intensity are NOT affected significantly by fuel loading. Fires like this are created by dry conditions and wind conditions, so fuel reduction does little; to quote a Victorian study " at higher levels of fire danger, weather influences become more important than fuel conditions, in terms of successful suppression operations." Or as the B&NHRCRC says "On extreme high- temperature and high-wind days like Black Saturday, the effectiveness of most prescribed burning on stopping runs of large fires will be minimal because medium and long range spotting will see these areas overrun."

A University of Tas shows that 1/3 of the state will have to be burned to work effectively. It's also agreed that the effectiveness of hazard reduction burning is also shown to drop significantly after about four years. As the Royal Commission into the Black Saturday fires found, hazard reduction burning is " a high-risk activity to conduct, is resource intensive, is available only in limited time frames, and can have some adverse consequences for local communities."

So year after year, volunteers will have to be sitting out there doing HR burns while posters here sit on their arses - and older people, asthmatics and others suffer and whiners complain about the smoke.

Oh, and it's easy to make mistakes while doing HR burns; ask the idiot who did his own little one the other month near me. I've never had to use a bloody gum tree branch to swat out a grass fire before.

Razzanotor, you are obviously a firefighting God since you can sit behind a keyboard safely in your home and tell the RFS what they should be doing. Can you tell us all how fantastic it must be to know everything just like you do? And then can you tell us what someone with your amazing knowledge and power is doing, sitting at home instead of getting out there and putting your faultless, all-knowing abilities towards stopping the fires?

Or, on the other hand, could you perhaps stop worshipping yourself and consider than perhaps there may be some people who have years of experience and training who are out there on the fireground and that maybe, just maybe, they may know a tiny bit more than your all-knowing self?

Chris, Chris, Chris,,,,,

Where should I start with your scathing and personal attack on myself.....

Firstly at no point did I tell the RFS how to do their job, I am merely offering suggestions on what is called an "Internet forum" a place where people go to discuss topics.

Now in regards to you stating I am sitting at home and doing nothing to help, I'm here on the internet trying to share some hints and tips and do something called converse, yourself on the other hand is carrying on like a megalomaniac psychopath.

Please pray do tell how you have gotten " off your ass" to assist instead of abusing people on seabreeze

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AUS1111 said..
^^ Suppose we reduce our emissions to zero. Then what?

As part of a planet of nations and a middle power democracy, our example makes a difference.

If the country with one of the highest greenhouse gas emissions per capita is doing virtually nothing politically, then why would the biggest emitters bother to do more?

We could on principle stop selling the biggest emitters coal and gas but we won't because we're more interested in making a quick buck than we are about the future of the planet.

We're more interested in making billions for multinational corporations than we are about our grandchildren's future.

If we continue to do virtually nothing, then we are captive to the problem we chose to ignore. No one will listen to us unless we walk the walk and talk the talk.

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Razzonater said..

Chris 249 said..
Thank you, Dr Surf!

The other thing that people are ignoring is that fires of this intensity are NOT affected significantly by fuel loading. Fires like this are created by dry conditions and wind conditions, so fuel reduction does little; to quote a Victorian study " at higher levels of fire danger, weather influences become more important than fuel conditions, in terms of successful suppression operations." Or as the B&NHRCRC says "On extreme high- temperature and high-wind days like Black Saturday, the effectiveness of most prescribed burning on stopping runs of large fires will be minimal because medium and long range spotting will see these areas overrun."

A University of Tas shows that 1/3 of the state will have to be burned to work effectively. It's also agreed that the effectiveness of hazard reduction burning is also shown to drop significantly after about four years. As the Royal Commission into the Black Saturday fires found, hazard reduction burning is " a high-risk activity to conduct, is resource intensive, is available only in limited time frames, and can have some adverse consequences for local communities."

So year after year, volunteers will have to be sitting out there doing HR burns while posters here sit on their arses - and older people, asthmatics and others suffer and whiners complain about the smoke.

Oh, and it's easy to make mistakes while doing HR burns; ask the idiot who did his own little one the other month near me. I've never had to use a bloody gum tree branch to swat out a grass fire before.

Razzanotor, you are obviously a firefighting God since you can sit behind a keyboard safely in your home and tell the RFS what they should be doing. Can you tell us all how fantastic it must be to know everything just like you do? And then can you tell us what someone with your amazing knowledge and power is doing, sitting at home instead of getting out there and putting your faultless, all-knowing abilities towards stopping the fires?

Or, on the other hand, could you perhaps stop worshipping yourself and consider than perhaps there may be some people who have years of experience and training who are out there on the fireground and that maybe, just maybe, they may know a tiny bit more than your all-knowing self?

Chris, Chris, Chris,,,,,

Where should I start with your scathing and personal attack on myself.....

Firstly at no point did I tell the RFS how to do their job, I am merely offering suggestions on what is called an "Internet forum" a place where people go to discuss topics.

Now in regards to you stating I am sitting at home and doing nothing to help, I'm here on the internet trying to share some hints and tips and do something called converse, yourself on the other hand is carrying on like a megalomaniac psychopath.

Please pray do tell how you have gotten " off your ass" to assist instead of abusing people on seabreeze

No, you did NOT "merely offer suggestions". You insulted thousands of people who are risking their lives for others as "dad's army" who were "running around the bush banging into each other".

Since I am not the one who has insulted thousands of people, what I'm doing is not the issue. I was involved briefly with the RFS but found out that I can't fight fires due to asthma, so now I'm just making sure that I'm prepared along with my neighbours while I wait to see if I can help at the aviation brigade. That very small experience showed me that while they are not perfect, they do not deserve your stupid insults. I also have RFS friends who have been spending weeks out there over Christmas while you sling **** at them.

Given that you started by insulting other people, you have no right to whine when you get insulted in return. And given that your other contributions are so lightweight as to include dissing the font of a scientific piece and that you have not deigned to respond to the info of a pro like Kato, your "hint and tips" are worthless.

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Ian K said..

Chris 249 said..
Thank you, Dr Surf!
The other thing that people are ignoring is that fires of this intensity are NOT affected significantly by fuel loading.

Byram fireline intensity is defined as I = HWR where H is the heat content of the fuel, joules per kilogram, W is the weight of fuel kg/m^2 and R is the rate of spread m/sec. i.e.. Intensity varies linearly with fuel loading.

Funny that at the first attampt to calculate something on real number I did stack on those units- confusion
Either it should be J per G or KG , make such a difference. Like output in KW or MW
although if your I is provided in W then should fine or kJ/kg


learnline.cdu.edu.au/units/env207/fundamentals/behaviour.html

another interesting graph , but out our 100km /h spread must have been ballistic

www.aidr.org.au/media/4909/assist-with-prescribed-burning-puafir213.pdf

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Chris 249 said..

Razzonater said..

Chris 249 said..
Thank you, Dr Surf!

The other thing that people are ignoring is that fires of this intensity are NOT affected significantly by fuel loading. Fires like this are created by dry conditions and wind conditions, so fuel reduction does little; to quote a Victorian study " at higher levels of fire danger, weather influences become more important than fuel conditions, in terms of successful suppression operations." Or as the B&NHRCRC says "On extreme high- temperature and high-wind days like Black Saturday, the effectiveness of most prescribed burning on stopping runs of large fires will be minimal because medium and long range spotting will see these areas overrun."

A University of Tas shows that 1/3 of the state will have to be burned to work effectively. It's also agreed that the effectiveness of hazard reduction burning is also shown to drop significantly after about four years. As the Royal Commission into the Black Saturday fires found, hazard reduction burning is " a high-risk activity to conduct, is resource intensive, is available only in limited time frames, and can have some adverse consequences for local communities."

So year after year, volunteers will have to be sitting out there doing HR burns while posters here sit on their arses - and older people, asthmatics and others suffer and whiners complain about the smoke.

Oh, and it's easy to make mistakes while doing HR burns; ask the idiot who did his own little one the other month near me. I've never had to use a bloody gum tree branch to swat out a grass fire before.

Razzanotor, you are obviously a firefighting God since you can sit behind a keyboard safely in your home and tell the RFS what they should be doing. Can you tell us all how fantastic it must be to know everything just like you do? And then can you tell us what someone with your amazing knowledge and power is doing, sitting at home instead of getting out there and putting your faultless, all-knowing abilities towards stopping the fires?

Or, on the other hand, could you perhaps stop worshipping yourself and consider than perhaps there may be some people who have years of experience and training who are out there on the fireground and that maybe, just maybe, they may know a tiny bit more than your all-knowing self?

Chris, Chris, Chris,,,,,

Where should I start with your scathing and personal attack on myself.....

Firstly at no point did I tell the RFS how to do their job, I am merely offering suggestions on what is called an "Internet forum" a place where people go to discuss topics.

Now in regards to you stating I am sitting at home and doing nothing to help, I'm here on the internet trying to share some hints and tips and do something called converse, yourself on the other hand is carrying on like a megalomaniac psychopath.

Please pray do tell how you have gotten " off your ass" to assist instead of abusing people on seabreeze

No, you did NOT "merely offer suggestions". You insulted thousands of people who are risking their lives for others as "dad's army" who were "running around the bush banging into each other".

Since I am not the one who has insulted thousands of people, what I'm doing is not the issue. I was involved briefly with the RFS but found out that I can't fight fires due to asthma, so now I'm just making sure that I'm prepared along with my neighbours while I wait to see if I can help at the aviation brigade. That very small experience showed me that while they are not perfect, they do not deserve your stupid insults. I also have RFS friends who have been spending weeks out there over Christmas while you sling **** at them.

Given that you started by insulting other people, you have no right to whine when you get insulted in return. And given that your other contributions are so lightweight as to include dissing the font of a scientific piece and that you have not deigned to respond to the info of a pro like Kato, your "hint and tips" are worthless.

Chris, get a glass of water, your lithium tablets and take your controlled dose.

A)
Now at no point or any in the future will I describe, infer nor refer to any of the amazing and wonderful RFS representatives as any of the things you have delusionally conjured up as me stating. ( please put your lithium tablet in your mouth and drink your water)

B) Getting your own house ready does not deserve a medal, self praise is no praise. It's not volunteering at a soup kitchen or helping the community as a whole, it is you painting a picture of what a marvellous human you perceive yourself to be. Pretty piss poor effort considering your megalomaniac stance in this thread

C) To he honest I don't volunteer at current on any group, I did however do around 6 years giving up every second weekend to skipper the local sea rescue boat and save people from drowning , reefs, rolled boats and the occasional onboard fire.
In that time at a haphazard guess may of got around 2-300 people out of some pretty ordinary scenarios.

D) I hold an advanced fire fighting certification, confined space rescue and a couple dozen other tickets of that nature

E) I stopped volunteering due to having three children a full time job and a mortgage, once I have time available again , I will go back and help where and when possible

F) hopefully your lithium is working by now and again, I think and acknowledge that all the volunteers are amazing humans and to give up their time and endanger themselves is a truely heroic effort

One item you corrected me on was in regards to an easterly wind, that is correct and a typo on my behalf after a glass or two of vino, an easterly wind does indeed blow from the east to the west and not as I stated from the west. Indeed it should have read to the west.

Please do tell us all what an amazing neighbour you are and smite down all who oppose your narcissistic and aggressive self adoration.

And again yes we should be back burning.

remember, if you attack someone it's best to get your message to the right person on the right format,,,, otherwise you end up sitting their doing self genital mutilation again and again wondering why the lithium tablets don't work anymore

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FormulaNova said..
Is this current problem really an example of climate change, or an example of Aus's climate variation.
It doesnt really matter in a way as the short term response is the same.
Despite believing in climate change, i just think its a ridiculously long dry period.

Last year vast amounts of the Amazon burnt, the fire season in California also appears to be increasing in length and fires are burning with more intensity.

coincidence?

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FormulaNova said..
The last paragraph says what I think. Was it confusing?

Yes. why did you ask a question if the question doesn't matter and you already know the answer?

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FormulaNova said..
Is this current problem really an example of climate change, or an example of Aus's climate variation.
It doesnt really matter in a way as the short term response is the same.
Despite believing in climate change, i just think its a ridiculously long dry period.

Looks like we are still better with fires then flooding. Current fire cost budget 2 bln since queensland flood alone cost 6.7 bln.Surprisingly nobody taught here that those two could neutralize them self. If only we could turn one catastrophe against each other. But looks like human long term memory practical last no longer then decade. In two years time we will be talking about catastrophic flooding and lack of storage, dams and infrastructure. Some will be recalling old good times when land was dry not wet. Obviously for another 6.7 bln you could now build a lot of infrastructure in advance, not just to rebuild damaged. Same here 11.7 mln saved on airplane tankers ,but 2 bln spent on rebuild, and another 15 mln mln on commercial advertising to rebuild Australia image overseas.

The simple truth the some things are under our control ( like dams, artificial lake and canal, irrigation ) some other like climate are not ( regardless how much you want to believe we could turn the clock back, regulate climate at will)

Of course the fires are a result of climate change. There has not been a drought this widespread since the Federation drought.

The climate changed back then too.

Arguing about whether this one is a result of man made climate change skirts the whole issue. Even if it is temperatures have declined slightly in Australia over the past 120 years so approaching the problem from that direction will surely leave us in the same position as 120 years ago.

Before man was drought and after man will be drought.

We have vast swathes of land much of which has unlikely had any human attention other than the odd adventurous dope grower in yonks.

We've got the drought which ensures ideal conditions for wild fires.

And we've got more fuel than has probably existed since before aboriginals inhabited the land.

This will reoccur into eternity regardless how much we intervene OR how much we effect climate.

We have only one viable option which is to learn that if we want to reduce forest fires in the short to medium term we must reduce the fuel.

And there is precious little chance of that happening when the authority's responsible for managing the land take the lock the gate and leave it approach.


Im all for using alternative energy and electric cars and whatnot. But it ain't going to make the climate change to the extent there are no droughts because the f^ckers have always been around.

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TheTruth said..

FormulaNova said..
Australia has always been a country of non-typical weather patterns

Weather isn't climate

Really? Wow, am I going to read any more amazing revelations or are you going to back your own opinion with a discussion?

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FormulaNova said..
Really? Wow, am I going to read any more amazing revelations or are you going to back your own opinion with a discussion?

I don't think I can convince you that the fires are a result of humans, and can't really be bothered arguing it. I think you might be a little NQR, or how else can I put this..... 2 cents short of a dollar.

If enough people think something is a fact then it inevitably becomes fact.

It doesn't matter if these awful fires are caused by climate change or not. Easier just to agree with you on that.

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Razzonater said..

Chris 249 said..

Razzonater said..

Chris 249 said..
Thank you, Dr Surf!

The other thing that people are ignoring is that fires of this intensity are NOT affected significantly by fuel loading. Fires like this are created by dry conditions and wind conditions, so fuel reduction does little; to quote a Victorian study " at higher levels of fire danger, weather influences become more important than fuel conditions, in terms of successful suppression operations." Or as the B&NHRCRC says "On extreme high- temperature and high-wind days like Black Saturday, the effectiveness of most prescribed burning on stopping runs of large fires will be minimal because medium and long range spotting will see these areas overrun."

A University of Tas shows that 1/3 of the state will have to be burned to work effectively. It's also agreed that the effectiveness of hazard reduction burning is also shown to drop significantly after about four years. As the Royal Commission into the Black Saturday fires found, hazard reduction burning is " a high-risk activity to conduct, is resource intensive, is available only in limited time frames, and can have some adverse consequences for local communities."

So year after year, volunteers will have to be sitting out there doing HR burns while posters here sit on their arses - and older people, asthmatics and others suffer and whiners complain about the smoke.

Oh, and it's easy to make mistakes while doing HR burns; ask the idiot who did his own little one the other month near me. I've never had to use a bloody gum tree branch to swat out a grass fire before.

Razzanotor, you are obviously a firefighting God since you can sit behind a keyboard safely in your home and tell the RFS what they should be doing. Can you tell us all how fantastic it must be to know everything just like you do? And then can you tell us what someone with your amazing knowledge and power is doing, sitting at home instead of getting out there and putting your faultless, all-knowing abilities towards stopping the fires?

Or, on the other hand, could you perhaps stop worshipping yourself and consider than perhaps there may be some people who have years of experience and training who are out there on the fireground and that maybe, just maybe, they may know a tiny bit more than your all-knowing self?

Chris, Chris, Chris,,,,,

Where should I start with your scathing and personal attack on myself.....

Firstly at no point did I tell the RFS how to do their job, I am merely offering suggestions on what is called an "Internet forum" a place where people go to discuss topics.

Now in regards to you stating I am sitting at home and doing nothing to help, I'm here on the internet trying to share some hints and tips and do something called converse, yourself on the other hand is carrying on like a megalomaniac psychopath.

Please pray do tell how you have gotten " off your ass" to assist instead of abusing people on seabreeze

No, you did NOT "merely offer suggestions". You insulted thousands of people who are risking their lives for others as "dad's army" who were "running around the bush banging into each other".

Since I am not the one who has insulted thousands of people, what I'm doing is not the issue. I was involved briefly with the RFS but found out that I can't fight fires due to asthma, so now I'm just making sure that I'm prepared along with my neighbours while I wait to see if I can help at the aviation brigade. That very small experience showed me that while they are not perfect, they do not deserve your stupid insults. I also have RFS friends who have been spending weeks out there over Christmas while you sling **** at them.

Given that you started by insulting other people, you have no right to whine when you get insulted in return. And given that your other contributions are so lightweight as to include dissing the font of a scientific piece and that you have not deigned to respond to the info of a pro like Kato, your "hint and tips" are worthless.

Chris, get a glass of water, your lithium tablets and take your controlled dose.

A)
Now at no point or any in the future will I describe, infer nor refer to any of the amazing and wonderful RFS representatives as any of the things you have delusionally conjured up as me stating. ( please put your lithium tablet in your mouth and drink your water)

B) Getting your own house ready does not deserve a medal, self praise is no praise. It's not volunteering at a soup kitchen or helping the community as a whole, it is you painting a picture of what a marvellous human you perceive yourself to be. Pretty piss poor effort considering your megalomaniac stance in this thread

C) To he honest I don't volunteer at current on any group, I did however do around 6 years giving up every second weekend to skipper the local sea rescue boat and save people from drowning , reefs, rolled boats and the occasional onboard fire.
In that time at a haphazard guess may of got around 2-300 people out of some pretty ordinary scenarios.

D) I hold an advanced fire fighting certification, confined space rescue and a couple dozen other tickets of that nature

E) I stopped volunteering due to having three children a full time job and a mortgage, once I have time available again , I will go back and help where and when possible

F) hopefully your lithium is working by now and again, I think and acknowledge that all the volunteers are amazing humans and to give up their time and endanger themselves is a truely heroic effort

One item you corrected me on was in regards to an easterly wind, that is correct and a typo on my behalf after a glass or two of vino, an easterly wind does indeed blow from the east to the west and not as I stated from the west. Indeed it should have read to the west.

Please do tell us all what an amazing neighbour you are and smite down all who oppose your narcissistic and aggressive self adoration.

And again yes we should be back burning.

remember, if you attack someone it's best to get your message to the right person on the right format,,,, otherwise you end up sitting their doing self genital mutilation again and again wondering why the lithium tablets don't work anymore

1- Thank you for your volunteer work. That is great. As a volunteer surely you would appreciate that some of us don't like people slinging **** at other volunteers.

"Advanced firefighting qualifications" can mean a lot of different things but you don't say you have bushfire quals or experience. It's great that you have confined space rescue quals - much respect and if that subject came up I would listen to you and learn from you.

What I'm saying is that volunteers and people with knowledge should be respected and not be criticised from the sidelines. As a volunteer with specialised knowledge, surely you should see where I'm coming from. I respect your volunteer work and knowledge so what's wrong with saying that we should respect the knowledge of other volunteers?


2- Not a single thing I ever said implied that I am an amazing neighbour or deserve a single shred of any credit for protecting my own house. I said that what I was doing was not the issue. I pointed out clearly that my own bushfire experience was minor. I merely answered a question and there is NO way it can be claimed that I was beating my drum when I made all that so clear.


3- I'm not a megalomaniac - quite the opposite. I'm not one of those who is sitting around saying that I know what the people on the fire ground or ordering aircraft should be doing. That is what OTHER people are doing. THEY are the ones saying that they know more than the people in control of the firefighting effort.

The megalomaniacs are those who are sitting back and saying what the firefighters should do, in the assumption that the posters know more than those who are on the ground. All I am saying is that the people out there on the ground deserve respect, and not to be told what they should have done.


4- On NYE, for example, lighting a backburn could have been a disaster in areas such as that area north of Batemans Bay. There was a very strong southerly change that could have sent a massive fire at high speed towards Durras. Even by the time the change got to Sydney it was howling. I'm also not sure at all how much you know about the topography of that and other areas.

Factors such as that are the reason I can't see why sitting back in another state and telling people what those in the area should have done is useful or respectful. I wouldn't sit back and tell you how to do rescues if I didn't know the boats and conditions involved.


5- I didn't attack until after people attacked volunteers by saying that they were doing the wrong thing. Like you, I think many of them are amazing, therefore I can't work out why you say they were doing the wrong thing by not backburning.


6- Yes, I object to criticism of those defend people who give their time, and sometimes their lives, to volunteer to help others. Friends of mine have been and are out there, giving their time and knowledge to the RFS, and I respect them. They are not morons, they are not fools, and they do not need criticism from the sidelines.

If, as you and I agree, they are amazing then surely we should not sit back and tell them they are getting it wrong.