Perfect Storm (financial)?

The disclaimer for Main - my opinion that resources may be in demand when this is all over does not constitute financial advice and is merely common sense

^^^^

The bears have gone quiet. They will be back on the next down day prognosticating more doom based on fear of the unknown and good dose of Harry hindsight charting interpretation.

Won't be today though.

Bear markets - a massive plunge, the odd false dawn, and a long, long grind lower. I'm with Harrow, we'll see 3500 on the ASX200, perhaps overshooting even lower. Still, hasn't stopped me $ cost averaging back in - showing a profit today lol. (Qualifier: I have a 5 - 10 year investment horizon, so it's a risk worth taking.). I'm a bit wary about switching my super fund strategy to risk-on as yet though - a lot of direct super fund investments (like infrastructure) yet to be marked down to market (according to Robert Glottalstop in the Australian).

Private Jets are flying into NZ bolt holes , rich Americans cashed out early they new what was happening , straight from the pilots mouth , a friend who has flown his boss to his east coast farm .

I don't know about the graph below.

I have been following Gerald Celeste for ten years.

He's made a name for himself accurately forecasting trends over the past thirty years and for giving accurate and insightful political commentary.

Of course he may be wrong but I know who I'd bet on.

Sell, sell, sell the following;

1- anything to do with sock manufacturing. I can't be the only one who has suddenly found time to go through all my odd socks and pair them up. By the time we're all out and free, everyone will have found that they already have five years supplies of matched socks and no need for any more.

2 - Insurance firm shares. It's only March and 2020 has already had drought, fires, floods in some areas, and a pandemic - and winter is coming. By June, Godzilla will be wandering Sydney Harbour. By spring, the zombies will be marching. Imagine how many claims for household damage White Walkers, nuclear monsters and zombies will cause.


Buy, buy, buy;

1- Shares in corporate law firms specialising in family law. How many couples will handle being cooped up for too long?

2- Windsurfer LTs - no one will be able to afford anything else and yet after a few months stuck at home, everyone will be raring to get out there.

3- Shares in country properties with their own lake to sail on, and land to grow food. By 2021, a 1% share in such a property will be worth millions. Trust me.

4- Shares in baby shops and maternity hospitals. What else is there for young couples to do?

The preceding is professional advice. Ten percent of all your profits must be sent to me. If you make a loss, bad luck - privatise the profits and corporatise the losses is the way to go.

Surprisingly some may still think that printing money will solve all problems.
In absence of running production lines, common self isolation
.Everybody could stay at home , then do shopping from time to time to get supplies.
Whole nations convert now into consumers from producers and suppliers. Its appear that financial reserves families had , were very limited. Exhausted in the matters of weeks.

Hopefully material goods accommodated for some time will last, but for how long?

For future reference , I think that problem could be resolved by introduction of personal hazard suites for everybody.
People walking on the streets in space suits everywhere , but we are not at this stage yet,.
Maybe when Corona combine with Ebola at killing efficiency, such need will arise.


The question is what is printed money worth in the world when nobody do anything?

^^^ I was speaking to my brother in law on the weekend who is a very switched on economist and provides consultancy advice to a lot of the larger investment firms. My question to him was "Is the share market good value now, or is it likely to drop another 30%?"

His answer, "Probably yes, and probably yes."

In other words, good opportunity exists now, but be prepared to sit tight on the roller coaster for some time yet. So, ease in gradually over several months, and don't use any money that you might need in the next couple of years. Hopefully, you've got the constitution to view any drop in your ongoing investment as an ever-increasing opportunity.

Here's a perspective you might like consider....think of anyone that bought shares in the last 6 years. If you buy now. whatever happens, you're already ahead of most of them.

Interesting link showing the amount of money football clubs in Britain pay their players.

Easy to understand why there is a large underclass when so few take so much.


www.hartlepoolmail.co.uk/sport/football/middlesbrough-fc/revealed-middlesbroughs-staggering-wage-bill-increase-1992-compared-british-rivals-leeds-celtic-and-rangers-2531553

I hear you Eppo, it's unprecedented times.

I think there'll be more and more good news as virus levels peak and in May the people that qualify for the various corona virus wage subsidies get their backdated pay.
There's going to be downturns like today's credit rating drop but it's impossible to pick the bottom and these times will pass. How soon or quickly is a million dollar question?