This place is heating up

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Ian K said..

It does make you wonder. If something as simple as a dripping tap goes into weird modes of oscillation why wouldn't the climate?

Seems like you're talking chaos theory. Chaos theory as we know it was basically created by Lorenz, who was of course struck by the enormous change in the outcome of his early weather modelling programme when he inputted (IIRC) 0.506 instead of 0.506127 during one run. His 1963 paper in Journal of Atmospheric Sciences referred to the issue.

So climate modellers have known about chaotic oscillations, strange attractors etc for 50+ years, and not as if the people who work on climate science aren't used to dealing with these concepts.

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Chris 249 said..

Ian K said..

It does make you wonder. If something as simple as a dripping tap goes into weird modes of oscillation why wouldn't the climate?

But hang on - sounds like you're talking chaos theory. Chaos theory as we know it was basically created by Lorenz, who was of course struck by the enormous change in the outcome of his early weather modelling programme when he inputted (IIRC) 0.506 instead of 0.506127 during one run. His 1963 paper in Journal of Atmospheric Sciences referred to the issue.

So climate modellers have known about chaotic oscillations, strange attractors etc for 50+ years, and that's why they often use Monte Carlo systems and ensemble forecasts. It's not as if the people who work on climate science aren't used to dealing with this stuff.

Chris is not a scientist, we need to listen to the scientists

wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/05/nature-has-been-removing-excess-co2-4x-faster-than-ipcc-models/

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TonyAbbott said..

Chris 249 said..

Ian K said..

It does make you wonder. If something as simple as a dripping tap goes into weird modes of oscillation why wouldn't the climate?

But hang on - sounds like you're talking chaos theory. Chaos theory as we know it was basically created by Lorenz, who was of course struck by the enormous change in the outcome of his early weather modelling programme when he inputted (IIRC) 0.506 instead of 0.506127 during one run. His 1963 paper in Journal of Atmospheric Sciences referred to the issue.

So climate modellers have known about chaotic oscillations, strange attractors etc for 50+ years, and that's why they often use Monte Carlo systems and ensemble forecasts. It's not as if the people who work on climate science aren't used to dealing with this stuff.

Chris is not a scientist, we need to listen to the scientists

wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/05/nature-has-been-removing-excess-co2-4x-faster-than-ipcc-models/

Oh dear. You're being dishonest again. I was pointing out what a scientist, Lorenz, found out years ago. That IS listening to the scientists.

The guy in your link is one of a very small proportion of scientists in the field who deny AGW. Why listen to a very small minority of experts instead of the vast majority? If 90% plus of doctors say smoking is likely to harm you, and a few say it will not, why believe the minority?

If you were an honest person, one may think that you have reasons for preferring the minority view. But you've repeatedly lied on this forum, and repeatedly put up dishonest posts like the one that lied about the Antarctic Expedition. So it's apparent that you are a liar with no integrity and therefore unlikely to have a decent reason for your beliefs.

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Chris 249 said..So when are you going to admit that you were full of bull**** earlier, when you lied about the "climate warriors" getting stuck in ice?
When are you going to admit you swallowed that line of bull****, hook line and sinker?
If you are going to put up lies and bull**** and not admit it, why the hell would anyone listen to more of the stuff you post?
Why are you such a dishonest person?

Jeez you remind me of a woman, bringing up crap I posted, (how long ago?), and distorting it to suit your agenda. like I said fool, bullet point what I said was incorrect, and I will address them. Bcos you come across as a bit of a nagging nut case I don't read everything you post in detail, so bullet points help me not gloss over it.
Eg:
- 2019-07-09 you wrote "Climate Alarmist got stuck in ice",
- this is incorrect bcos
-- x y z.

If I got it wrong I am happy to admit to it. I'm being honest, I know you're trying to say something, or catch me out but at present I haven't really entertained it.

Or will you be happy with a wife reply? Dearest Chris 249, you're right, I'm wrong, sorry won't happen again. Do you want jewelry or a fluffy toy?

^^ People who have a history of climate skepticism, have a blog dedicated to spreading doubt about the science and self-labels as a "scientist" , worked for the INstitute of Public Affairs when they took donations from Murray Irrigation Limited is probably dodgy.

She's a highly compromised source of unscientific opinion. Believing someone like that is like believing a paid internal report into the health impacts of smoking done by tobacco companies.

If it suits your agenda, go for it. Confirmation bias at it's most transparent.

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TonyAbbott said..
Climate warrior ship of fools happened

You must believe the earth is flat and science is settled with a show of hands

What a liar you are. You've shown no evidence for any claim about a "ship of fools". You just believe whatever BS some denier throws at you. To just say "it happened" without showing any evidence is just childish.

No, I don't believe the earth is flat - I believe in the science that shows it's not.

Now youtube is throwing up all these climate denialist/ alarmist videos at me. At least this one is by an Aussie. (He's entertaining, and he's a scientist, at Melbourne uni). I only fact checked the Sea shepherd getting fined for dumping oil on the Barrier Reef. It was an accident but never let the truth spoil a good story.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Plimer

The Liberal and National Party are a Ship of Fools. They are on the take and think the public don't know about it.

Australia will be an energy superpower, if only the coal dinosaurs will get out of the way and admit they are wrong.

Japan has already announced it will not build coal plants, will build renewables, will phase out nuclear and buy hydrogen to make up the new energy mix shortfall, so let's get making the stuff on a large scale using renewable energy.\

Basically , stop digging the black crap up and start digging up more valuable stuff and manufacturing it into refined ores and metals here.

Enough jobs for decades.

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holy guacamole said..
Australia will be an energy superpower, if only the coal dinosaurs will get out of the way and admit they are wrong.

Japan has already announced it will not build coal plants, will build renewables, will phase out nuclear and buy hydrogen to make up the new energy mix shortfall, so let's get making the stuff on a large scale using renewable energy.\

Basically , stop digging the black crap up and start digging up more valuable stuff and manufacturing it into refined ores and metals here.

Enough jobs for decades.

You might want to check your facts on the Japan statement. Not much truth there.... 22 coal fired stations in the pipeline atm and no real plans to get rid of Nuclear. It's sad they are increasing use of a significant polutant with the safest energy source we have, purely on irrational alarmism over nuclear. Everyone is adding renewables to the power mix, thats not news.

That said, I agree coal needs to be phased out. However the only viable alternatives are gas (better but still not great) or nuclear, especially if you want to significantly ramp up industrial power needs and develop mining, refining and manufacturing industries. I agree this is a good goal, but not one that is achievable if you dont have cheap, reliable power networks, and that is not something that is provided by networks with a majority % of renewables in them.

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boofta said..

DelFuego said..
The Liberal and National Party are a Ship of Fools. They are on the take and think the public don't know about it.

The only thing the Libs /Nats are doing is trying to provide reasonably priced power to keep our country
going during a sensible transition to more renewables. They are on the take from us voters, who are sick of
the Greta Dumbergs of the world and silly dreamers who insist current technologies can replace generators.
The worlds highest prised electricity, do you actually work and pay bills? Sheesh

I disagree. I think the Libs / Nats are a roadblock to progress, to new industry and to business certainty. The Business Council, state governments and many industry leaders have been saying this for years.

Everyone in the business, science and technology sectors are screaming for these dinosaurs to get over themselves and provide a clear policy direction for the nation. If the LNP just admitted they have been wrong and got on with the job of working with all stakeholders the voter would reward them. At present, ScoMo and his colleagues still have their heads buried in the sand.

New coal power plants aren't ever going to be built in Australia. Forget it. Only a foolish National MP would dream of such a dumb thing.

Q&A had a great analogy last night: the LNP's faith in coal is like a belief that the Nokia 3210 is the best phone ever.

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holy guacamole said..

New coal power plants aren't ever going to be built in Australia. Forget it. Only a foolish National MP would dream of such a dumb thing.

If you want stable power, you need dispatchable sources - Coal, Gas, Hydro, Nuclear, whats dumb is to ignore this.

Dreaming that renewable energy will replace the need for dispatchable power anytime soon is the problem.

Both major parties know this and despite spending over AUD10billion a year subsidising renewable energy sources, they also know we still need to keep the lights on.

One thing I can assure you of, an economy in trouble breeds voters that care more about a job than burning coal. Environmental progress is strongly linked to strong economies. Accordingly any environmental initiative that is too expensive will ultimately fail and likely end up with a situation worse than when it started - like the last federal election here, and Japan and thier switch from Nuclear to Coal.

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holy guacamole said..

Paradox said..That said, I agree coal needs to be phased out. However the only viable alternatives are gas (better but still not great) or nuclear,

That's just your opinion though...viability is about scale and renewables are not exempt from that criteria. The only issue with viability, is a lack of imagination and planning.

Not opinion, thats pretty much a common view amongst the experts.
www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/4/7/15159034/100-renewable-energy-studies

I'd suggest that your comment is purely opinion though. "Scale, imagination and planning" sound more like a marketing add for an unproven concept than a solid platform when it comes to actual solutions in delivering a fundamental basic need of society.

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You appear to know better than the Japanese regarding the safety of their nuclear power plants. Perhaps you could go over and restart the reactors for them?

No need, they are doing it themselves.... "26 restart applications are now pending with an estimated 12 units to come back in service by 2025 and 18 by 2030" wikipedia

www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/12/09/reference/japan-nuclear-power-onagawa-reactor-restart/

No crystal balling and no I'm not talking about an instant solution. I'll leave the childhood dreams about coal to the National Party and nuclear to the Libs.

I'm referring to AEMO's own projections for the transition to renewables. You talk as if this is a figment of someone's imagination, when in truth it's happening right before our eyes.

According to the AEMO, by 2050 under business as usual most Australian energy generation will be renewables. Not coal. Not nuclear. Not gas.

www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-Methodologies/2019/2019-20-Forecasting-and-Planning-Scenarios-Inputs-and-Assumptions-Report.pdf

www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Planning_and_Forecasting/Inputs-Assumptions-Methodologies/2019/2019-Planning-and-Forecasting-Consultation-Responses.pdf

As I've said before, by 2040/2050 we'll see if AEMO was right, or if you were right.

Maybe by 2040 you will have restarted all of Japan's nuke reactors too....

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boofta said..

DelFuego said..
The Liberal and National Party are a Ship of Fools. They are on the take and think the public don't know about it.

The only thing the Libs /Nats are doing is trying to provide reasonably priced power to keep our country
going during a sensible transition to more renewables. They are on the take from us voters, who are sick of
the Greta Dumbergs of the world and silly dreamers who insist current technologies can replace generators.
The worlds highest prised electricity, do you actually work and pay bills? Sheesh

Very expensive power since the Libs and National parties have taken office. Very bad politicians. They have done nothing but increase power prices and open up more coal fields. They say they are keeping the price down but that is just their spin doctors talking. Their mates are killing the pig, eg Gina, et al. Private enterprises are transitioning, just the Liberal right wing factions putting a hand brake on it.

They should increase the tax on coal, oil and gas from the miners by at least five fold. This may go some way to cover costs of the extreme weather events that will occur over the next few decades caused by their calamitous policies and inaction.