Re: earliest foil.
The young guys at Rose Bay foil in about 2 knots less wind that the Moths, So definitely 6 knots...
VMG's are pretty average, but still up and going.
That is on full race equipment...
Look at the Techno sail out in front, its got to be the most versatile rig in the world as well as the cheapest, works on everything.
Most likely toast but how cool is it that a kid (I assume) on a techno rig can line up on a start line with a World Champion sailor like Steve Allen. He was at our club last season and joined in on the club races and the local kids got to share a start line with a him. I thought that was pretty cool for them.
The pic below is from 2013 Down Under Pro Australian FW Nationals at Hawks Nest, my then 15 yo in his first formula regatta hitting the start line using a techno sail as well its the 4th from the right. He was toast as well, pretty sure Steve Allen was at that one as well.
It was after watching this clip of a guy using an 11m planing in 5-10 knots that DG decided the rules need to be changed.
Looks more like a 10.5 for me.
Some people are already talking about protesting if you racing with it.
To also go back on topic, I've been training with some very good riders over the summer and have seen prototype foilsails of upto 12.5m2.
My most recent training session was in gusty 8-20 knots, where we were on a mix of 9-10-11's. The difference was marginal in the upwind, doing a 6km upwind leg, and ending up with max 20m spread within the group, with mostly the best riders being ahead and not necessarily the rider with the biggest sail. On the downwind the difference was massive, especially under the shore where wind was around 5 knots. The guys with the bigger sails could get an insane angle pretty much instantly, whereas the guys with the smaller sails needed a lot more speed. I think in more consistent conditions the difference overall will not be so big, especially since we noticed in the upwind that in the gusts the smaller sails were faster and pointing higher. Therefore, my fear of pros rigging a 12.5 in 17 knots of wind are not really justified, the big sails also have a lot of drag, meaning that in those condition the gain in angle downwind will be lost in the tradeoff with speed, and angle and speed upwind.