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40+ ktn attempt

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Created by Macroscien > 9 months ago, 20 Oct 2017
Dylan72
QLD, 633 posts
23 Oct 2017 5:58PM
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Yes, the stats page is guidance, not dogma.

Sandy Point data is from only 392 tracks, which over a large number of years isn't great coverage. www.ka72.com/locationstats/loc/Sandy%20Point,%20Vic,%20AU

Stats are also affected by competitions, which is why Sandy Point shows a spike in September/October as there used to be a lot of activity there in September/October.

See also Burrum Heads, where March blows away the other months, even though the best speeds there are not always in March. www.ka72.com/locationstats/loc/Burrum%20Heads,%20QLD,%20AU

In fact, the Nautical Mile, which it is famous for, the best times were in November 2012 and February 2011.

Dig into the whole set of stats to get the full picture.

If Kings of the Beach put some extra info into the spots that might help understand the stats. (Hint hint... ;0)

sailquik
VIC, 6089 posts
24 Oct 2017 8:22PM
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Yes, Dylan is quite right. Also, historically, most of the good sessions from Sandy Point, especially before the last few years will not be in KA72.

If you could somehow mine the data in GPS-TC it would give you a much better picture, but we can already tell you when the best winds and best speeds are likely to come through.

First let me say that you can get a good WSW front pretty much any time of the year, but they are far more common during September and October most years, and more likely to be stronger then. There are often some really good ones during June, July and August as well, but it is extremely cold (they brought the big snow dumps I enjoyed so much this year) and with the really short daylight hours it is very hard to get the tides lined up with the wind storms. Most of every second week is ruled out because of the high tide being somewhere around the middle of the day, and is exacerbated by the likelihood of big storm surges with the big winds meaning the tide may not go out all day.

By mid September, the days are getting longer and there are still big fronts marching though fairly regularly. From Mid September to mid October is when we have often had the really Epic days (40-50Kt winds). There seems to be a bit of a back off as the Spring progresses most years, but there have occaisionally been some good ones in November and especially late December and early January (Think Sydney Hobart Yacht race time).

Plenty of 40 knots sessions are common in January and Februrary most years, but most of them are on the Easterly winds which can often reach 30-35 knots in these months, although we sometimes get good WSW fronts during this period as well. From March on, the Easterlies mostly get lighter and less common and the WSW fronts less common and milder, but there are sometimes good ones. Those exceptions seem to have been more common in late Autumn (May) and early Winter (June) .

There it is. That is why we used to have the High Wind Carnival (late '80's and early 90's) and the Speed Week/Fortnight (2004 - 2011?) in the last week of September and the first week of October. The date 27-09-2009 is forever indelibly imprinted on a lot of people! (See below)

Unless you live within a couple of hours drive of Sandy Pt, it can be difficult to be there at the right time, unless you can leave the decision to the last possible minute. Forecasts more than about 3-4 days out are sometimes unreliable. The wind angle is quite critical and if it changes from the forecast WSW to West/WNW in the last 24 hours, the speed sailing goes form hero to zero with it. There are quite a few examples of keen sailors who have carefully studied the forecasts and contacted us to consult before taking a plane ride in the hopes of hitting gold. As long as you can leave the final decision to a day ot two before, you are pretty likely to get it and most of them have. Trying to predict it much more than 5 days out is frought with uncertainty most of the time, although there have been exceptions. I remember one example in around 2007 or 2008 during a Speed Fortnight. CL was sending emails to AA about possibly jumping on a plane from France for a top speed session. The forecast was looking quite promising right up to crunch time about 36 hours out. Then they suddenly went a bit soft. The risk was considered too high and AA stayed home. As it turned out, Chris and the rest of us had a cracker of a day of 35 knots + WSW and PB went down everywhere.

Unfortunately, the steady and relentless build up of the dunes on the Spit, especially the first part closer to the carpark end, have narrowed down the best wind angle in the last few years so oppurtunities are even harder to predict. Now. ideally, the wind needs to be between 240 and 255 degrees, but can be good at up to 260 if the wind is really strong.

Like I said before, if you ever have a hankering to endure the delights of toe numbing cold and sand imbedded in every orifice and finding out how many times you body can bounce on the water like a Yonnie, to see if you can hit gold at The PiT, give us a call, text or email and we will do all we can to help you interpret the forecasts, tides and improve your chances.

If it is on your bucket list, do it sooner, rather than later.

Some timeless pictures from 27-09-09. (Credit: Jodie from Whitecaps Photography).

Unsuccessful hopefuls - riding out the squall:


Tony Wynhoven of a 4.4m sail!! Unheard of, and I think the only time ever. Just before he did 49 knots. Tony and Spotty where the only ones who could manage 5 good runs for a good 5 x 10.




Mathew R on his way to a 46 kt peak:


Craig H on my older borrowed 4.4m. Nearly made it!




Spotty on his way to 50 knots!


Chris L managed a couple of runs.



Onlookers and warriors psyching themselves up and trying to stay warm.



I managed one good run in a Lull.





This one of Ado pretty much summed it up for everyone, whether they got down the course or not.


John340
QLD, 3102 posts
24 Oct 2017 10:44PM
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On Andrew's suggestion on Seabreeze, I made the trip,from Brisbane last November. After ringing Andrew, I confirmed my flights early on the Friday to fly down at midday and then drive to Sandy Pt on Friday night. I sailed both the Saturday (25 to 30 WSW) and Sunday ( 20 to 25 WSW) before driving back to Melbourne and flying to Brisbane that night. A fantastic and very challenging adventure, which I thoroughly recommend.

sailquik
VIC, 6089 posts
27 Oct 2017 12:58PM
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Something is brewing for early next week. Monday in particular, but also Tuesday and Wednesday all look promising for Sandy Point. Wind angle has not settled down to consensus on the various models yet though. Windguru looks great but others more West.

Mallacoota looks promising as well, but it all depends on if the Goodwin Sands is exposed, which is a bit dicy at the moment.

For the first time ever, I am quite excited that even if the wind ends up West to WNW, I will be trying out the new spots I have scoped out at Port Albert and Manns Beach. The latter looks particularly good for a West to WNW and some models are predicting 35-40 knot winds!!




AUS1111
WA, 3619 posts
27 Oct 2017 1:52PM
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Select to expand quote
sailquik said..
Yes, Dylan is quite right. Also, historically, most of the good sessions from Sandy Point, especially before the last few years will not be in KA72.

If you could somehow mine the data in GPS-TC it would give you a much better picture, but we can already tell you when the best winds and best speeds are likely to come through.

First let me say that you can get a good WSW front pretty much any time of the year, but they are far more common during September and October most years, and more likely to be stronger then. There are often some really good ones during June, July and August as well, but it is extremely cold (they brought the big snow dumps I enjoyed so much this year) and with the really short daylight hours it is very hard to get the tides lined up with the wind storms. Most of every second week is ruled out because of the high tide being somewhere around the middle of the day, and is exacerbated by the likelihood of big storm surges with the big winds meaning the tide may not go out all day.

By mid September, the days are getting longer and there are still big fronts marching though fairly regularly. From Mid September to mid October is when we have often had the really Epic days (40-50Kt winds). There seems to be a bit of a back off as the Spring progresses most years, but there have occaisionally been some good ones in November and especially late December and early January (Think Sydney Hobart Yacht race time).

Plenty of 40 knots sessions are common in January and Februrary most years, but most of them are on the Easterly winds which can often reach 30-35 knots in these months, although we sometimes get good WSW fronts during this period as well. From March on, the Easterlies mostly get lighter and less common and the WSW fronts less common and milder, but there are sometimes good ones. Those exceptions seem to have been more common in late Autumn (May) and early Winter (June) .

There it is. That is why we used to have the High Wind Carnival (late '80's and early 90's) and the Speed Week/Fortnight (2004 - 2011?) in the last week of September and the first week of October. The date 27-09-2009 is forever indelibly imprinted on a lot of people! (See below)

Unless you live within a couple of hours drive of Sandy Pt, it can be difficult to be there at the right time, unless you can leave the decision to the last possible minute. Forecasts more than about 3-4 days out are sometimes unreliable. The wind angle is quite critical and if it changes from the forecast WSW to West/WNW in the last 24 hours, the speed sailing goes form hero to zero with it. There are quite a few examples of keen sailors who have carefully studied the forecasts and contacted us to consult before taking a plane ride in the hopes of hitting gold. As long as you can leave the final decision to a day ot two before, you are pretty likely to get it and most of them have. Trying to predict it much more than 5 days out is frought with uncertainty most of the time, although there have been exceptions. I remember one example in around 2007 or 2008 during a Speed Fortnight. CL was sending emails to AA about possibly jumping on a plane from France for a top speed session. The forecast was looking quite promising right up to crunch time about 36 hours out. Then they suddenly went a bit soft. The risk was considered too high and AA stayed home. As it turned out, Chris and the rest of us had a cracker of a day of 35 knots + WSW and PB went down everywhere.

Unfortunately, the steady and relentless build up of the dunes on the Spit, especially the first part closer to the carpark end, have narrowed down the best wind angle in the last few years so oppurtunities are even harder to predict. Now. ideally, the wind needs to be between 240 and 255 degrees, but can be good at up to 260 if the wind is really strong.

Like I said before, if you ever have a hankering to endure the delights of toe numbing cold and sand imbedded in every orifice and finding out how many times you body can bounce on the water like a Yonnie, to see if you can hit gold at The PiT, give us a call, text or email and we will do all we can to help you interpret the forecasts, tides and improve your chances.

If it is on your bucket list, do it sooner, rather than later.

Some timeless pictures from 27-09-09. (Credit: Jodie from Whitecaps Photography).

Unsuccessful hopefuls - riding out the squall:


Tony Wynhoven of a 4.4m sail!! Unheard of, and I think the only time ever. Just before he did 49 knots. Tony and Spotty where the only ones who could manage 5 good runs for a good 5 x 10.




Mathew R on his way to a 46 kt peak:


Craig H on my older borrowed 4.4m. Nearly made it!




Spotty on his way to 50 knots!


Chris L managed a couple of runs.



Onlookers and warriors psyching themselves up and trying to stay warm.



I managed one good run in a Lull.





This one of Ado pretty much summed it up for everyone, whether they got down the course or not.



Psycho Sunday! Yes - remember that well. I crouched on the edge of that damned pit for four hours and in all that time managed to make one full run down the strip Must have been the only lull of the day. Nevertheless it was glorious and worth all the effort of the flights / drive / cold. I distinctly remember being at the bottom of the run and being completely unable to even flip my sail over to start the walk back.

Thankfully it was captured for posterity




Adriano
11206 posts
28 Oct 2017 4:31PM
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Only one run!? Pissweak.

AUS1111
WA, 3619 posts
28 Oct 2017 8:01PM
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I know....



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"40+ ktn attempt" started by Macroscien