Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...

Carbon Tax May Work after 1000 years!!!

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Created by cisco > 9 months ago, 30 Mar 2011
SandS
VIC, 5904 posts
31 Mar 2011 9:46PM
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oh bugger !!! well i supose we should be acoustomed to that by now.

Carantoc
WA, 6657 posts
31 Mar 2011 8:05PM
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Gestalt said...

if we stop emissions now we will stop the temperature increase at around 1.5-2 deg which is substantially better than the predicted 4+ deg if we do nothing.

we are already at .9 deg and are seeing the signs of that clearly with the global weather and plant and animal species on the move with some facing extinction.



above what ?

what we measured last week ?
What we averaged over the last 100 years ?
the last 200 years ?
the last 1000 years ?
the last 50,000 years ?
the last 5 million years ?

Only thing for sure is earth's climate has never been stable

When it has been generally warmer, it has been generally wetter and generally more biodiverse
When it has generally been colder, it has generally been drier and less biodiverse.

99.9% of all species that have ever evolved have become extinct. Mass extinction has occured before and life survived.

To convince me man made climate change is going to destroy all life on earth you need to talk about the rate of change, not the change. Maybe the rate of change will cause this, but nobody seems to be arguing that. I don't think 2 deg in 1,000 years has never occured before.

To convince me that me pumping concentrated waste into the environment in any form is a bad thing you need to do nothing.

To convince me that a tax on carbon with the money raised paid back to those affected (less admin costs) will save the planet you need to remove my brain.

I am getting pretty convinced though that I am sounding like Petermac33 here and that is very,very worrying - more worrying than climate change. Some form of sanity change must be occuring.

Gestalt
QLD, 14393 posts
31 Mar 2011 10:13PM
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Gizmo said...

SandS said...


Question to someone who understands.........

who is going to pay the carbon tax for the Desal plant about to be commissioned in victoria??


That's EASY !!!!!! taxpayers


if your desal plant is powered by clean power sources then clearly you won't pay any carbon taxes, or did you miss that point?

this is precisely why we need to get a carbon system on the table now as a country. so moving forward these types of infrustructure projects will :-
a. know what the costs are
b. be able to source clean power as it will become a more accessible and cheaper alternative

or here's another option, install a rainwater tank.

the irony here is that BECAUSE as a species we have not looked after our environment we are now having to deal with these issues.

Gestalt
QLD, 14393 posts
31 Mar 2011 10:20PM
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carantoc, the rate of change is exactly the problem..... species become extinct because they need 1 million years to evolve. the current rate of change is more in the 100 years ball park i believe.

anyways i'm not the expert. as i've written several times all the information from the expertts is there to be read. csiro for eg, nasa website, the list is very long.

the argument about the details of the carbon tax i'm staying out of at this stage. i think a lot of people use the carbon tax debate as a smkoke screen because ultimatley their political bias won't allow them to even accept global warming is man made. at that point the debate becomes a moot point.

i do believe though that the market is not responsible enough to deal with the issues now and in the future. market need regulation unfortunately to keep them honest. just look at the gfc.

that's the balancing point really, enough regulation to have an effect but still with enough freedom to allow enterprise.

reality is though, whether labor or coalition they will introduce a carbon tax.

edit, i forgot to answer your other question. above what?

figures i've read are above average. some figures are over an 800,000 year period, other shorter periods. i think it was the carbon dioxide ppm that is higher than anytime over the last 800,000 years. but i'd need to check.

Carantoc
WA, 6657 posts
31 Mar 2011 8:26PM
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Or because some American borrowed more than they could repay, and when it all went wrong they called it a GFC and some Aussie politician who didn't know any better panicked, and built a desal plant because everybody else was and it meant they could be remembered for building something great and not for being a bent polly, and they didn't have to justify the cost because spending more than you could afford was said to be the way out of the disaster that occured when too many people spent more than they could afford.

Carantoc
WA, 6657 posts
31 Mar 2011 8:50PM
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Gestalt said...

carantoc, the rate of change is exactly the problem..... species become extinct because they need 1 million years to evolve. the current rate of change is more in the 100 years ball park i believe.

anyways i'm not the expert. as i've written several times all the information from the expertts is there to be read. csiro for eg, nasa website, the list is very long.

the argument about the details of the carbon tax i'm staying out of at this stage. i think a lot of people use the carbon tax debate as a smkoke screen because ultimatley their political bias won't allow them to even accept global warming is man made. at that point the debate becomes a moot point.

i do believe though that the market is not responsible enough to deal with the issues now and in the future. market need regulation unfortunately to keep them honest. just look at the gfc.

that's the balancing point really, enough regulation to have an effect but still with enough freedom to allow enterprise.

reality is though, whether labor or coalition they will introduce a carbon tax.

edit, i forgot to answer your other question. above what?

figures i've read are above average. some figures are over an 800,000 year period, other shorter periods. i think it was the carbon dioxide ppm that is higher than anytime over the last 800,000 years. but i'd need to check.


Indeed, but I don't believe it takes anything like 1 million years for creatures to evolve. Take western family and look at relatives from 200 years ago and today - average height, foot size, hairiness, everything has changed. Evolution in a few generations occurs often and in many species. Lock a species in a confined environment and change can occur comparatively rapidly.

Having said that I would agree it takes time.

So to convince me tell me how much greater this rate of change is to what would have occured naturally, and has occurred naturally before.

I am not a climate sceptic, I don't doubt that pumping millions tonnes of concentrated crap into the environment is both bad and going to affect things - but tell me something that is plainly rubbish then I struggle to believe the rest of what is being said.

The initial point I think was a sarcastic jibe that the carbon tax won't affect global manmade temperature change. I see this argument as having merit.

Sell me a tax that penalises pollution and I can see the point, sell me a tax that does nothing except compensate those who have been taxed, I struggle to see the point.

Announce a tax, for which there is no detail and then object when I query the detail - just seems plain dumb.

petermac33
WA, 6415 posts
31 Mar 2011 9:03PM
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of course there are those who wish to cling to the fantasy that the official

government theory on global warming is actually true, so they can sleep at night in

their little dream-based world,

where their government takes good care of them, will continue to attack what

they don't understand or more appropriately said they don't want to understand.

Carantoc
WA, 6657 posts
31 Mar 2011 9:04PM
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Gestalt said...

figures i've read are above average. some figures are over an 800,000 year period, other shorter periods. i think it was the carbon dioxide ppm that is higher than anytime over the last 800,000 years. but i'd need to check.


That is one of my points I think.

If I roll a dice 100 times I get an average of say 3.2.

If I now roll it ten time and get an average of 4, does that mean the dice has become loaded - no, it just means the statistical analysis I am doing is different.

Is it that rate of change is too difficult for the average person to understand, the average climate scientist to explain, or not as sensational as absolute values ?

Gestalt
QLD, 14393 posts
1 Apr 2011 12:11AM
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@ carantoc,

there is so much to answer in your comments, your question is extremely broad and essentially you are asking me to validate 60 years of research on an internet forum.

i can't possibly do that, i have confidence that i am understanding of the data commonly available but i am not the person who you should be turning to seeking a definitive answer on the intricacies of climate change, i'm not the expert. reality is you should do what i did, look to the experts and seek their opinion. all of the information, data, graphs etc are on relevant websites. and the relevant website (which i quoted) are saying yes to both climate change and mans impact. personally, i see what i believe are changes to the climate. i believe the information i read from leading scientific bodies and i can fully understand that we as a species are destroying our planet. even on a professional level my work is being redefined due to environmental considerations and regulations.

as for graphs and statistics -nasa site has loads.... climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/
more figures on the csiro site -
www.csiro.au/resources/Humans-Changing-Climate--ci_pageNo-1.html
epa graphs
www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc_fig1.html

the 2nd part of your question relates to the tax. again, if you don't believe climate change and man's part in that then there's no point having the discussion. one must come before the other or you will simply be pondering how to fix a problem you believe doesn't exist. i guess that being the case your solution will be quite different to someone that does accept the problem.

but it should be noted that the eu is on target to achieve reductions by 2050 and is now talking of achieving 80% reductions which is massive.
all of the details are here. cleantechnica.com/2011/03/10/eu-met-2012-goals-on-track-for-2020-can-cut-emissions-80-by-2050/
the eu is leading the world and has a working system that includes taxes, carbon prices etc. until the labor party outlines their plans we cannot compare.

now,

i could turn the whole argument around and invite the skeptics to answer. (however blogs, political parties and discredited scientists with false quotes are not accepted as evidence.)

so,

prove to me why an environment tax won't work.
prove to me that climate change and man have no connection and the the worlds scientific experts are wrong.

Mark _australia
WA, 22388 posts
31 Mar 2011 10:20PM
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Gestalt said...
[brso,

prove to me that some form of environment tax won't work and suggest a system that will work.
prove to me that climate change and man have no connection and the the worlds scientific experts are wrong.


(1) Loaded question! If he truly believes, based on good empirical evidence, that global warming is untrue, why (how) could he suggest a system that will work? He believes it is unnecessary!
So that question is redundant. Now to number 2...

(2) I submit is impossible to prove. Regardless of what one believes, it must be admitted that once a vast majority of scientists believ one thing, then any research to the contrary is not publiched.
Proper peer reviewed good science has a history of being ignored by the journals and societies if it conflicts with the majority belief.
We are now at the point whereby any nay-sayers have been ridiculed so much that the best, most persuasive, statistically perfect research would not be considered by mainsteam journals

Gestalt
QLD, 14393 posts
1 Apr 2011 12:26AM
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i see,

i pointed out the oxymoron of number one already. just pretend that a green world is a good world and look at the eu who experienced acid rain and then did something.

and number 2 all you have given is your opinion.

Mark _australia
WA, 22388 posts
31 Mar 2011 10:33PM
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Gestalt said...

i see,

i pointed out the oxymoron of number one already. just pretend that a green world is a good world and look at the eu who experienced acid rain and then did something.

and number 2 all you have given is your opinion.


aaah but you edited number 1

and number two ..... hmmmm ...... look at the proliferation of creation science in mainstream journals (not!)
There has been some very good science, not to try and disprove evolution as a whole but rather just minor things, which journals refuse to publish.
Or lets say you did a wonderful analysis of JFK's bullet wound, or how buildings blew up in 911, if it tended to even slightly throw doubt upon one little thing in the generally accepted story it would not be published as they see "crackpot" in the first paragraph and bin it. No matter how good the science is...
Just like how the world was flat and bacteria didn't exist and proponents of what we now know were ridiculed. Are we so different now?

Gestalt
QLD, 14393 posts
1 Apr 2011 12:43AM
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yes, i made question 1 simpler. i didn't change the crux of the question.

and again, no 2. that still doesn't answer the question but raises some interesting conspiracy topics.

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
1 Apr 2011 1:49AM
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Could I just add, The taxation part of the carbon tax is the most boring and straight forward . The spending part of the tax is where the interest is. So the big polluters get taxed, some will add the tax on to their end user price others may opt to reduce their inbuilt carbon dioxide emissions(how much CO2 it takes to manufacture the widget)and thus reduce the price of the finished widget. The end user price will end up reflecting the lower price of the widget. So the consumer ends up with a choice...... the higher priced / high CO2 product or the lower priced/ lower carbon product. OK, so there we have an incentive for energy intense manufacturers to reduce their carbon footprint and reduce the amount of tax paid, and therefore reduce the price of their product in comparison to the other manufacturers. SO, from there that gives us the opportunity to reduce our emissions through a market mechanism, so no government picking winners or such like. There are some BIG possibilities here: the field of alternative energy generation/storage will suddenly become more viable as companies and individuals seek lower cost/ lower emission power and it will give us the ethical weight or moral high ground to say to our trading partners overseas"look what we've done, follow our lead " or in the case of India and China, we need you to produce at a lower carbon level (though India is implementing a price on the amount of coal burnt right now). So, to say a carbon tax will do nothing is just wrong, apart from the benefits I've already mentioned it will focus the minds of the citizens on doing a good thing for themselves and the world as a whole.

pweedas
WA, 4642 posts
31 Mar 2011 10:53PM
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Gestalt said...

prove to me why an environment tax won't work.



At last an easy question.
Show me where a new tax on anything reduced it's use.
Did the petrol parity pricing back in the 70's reduce our use of petrol? NO!
And that was a big tax.
Did the 10% GST on everything reduce how much we consumed? No!
Does the ever increasing tax on cigareettes stop people smoking? No!
Does an increase in alcohol tax reduce alcohol consumption? No!

Will adding a carbon tax to petrol prices make people use less petrol? No!
Will adding a carbon tax to power prices make people use less power? No!

Given that modern society is dependent on transport and heavy power consumption, the only answer is to find a way to provide those things in a clean and sustainable way. And windmills and solar cells is not it.



Gestalt
QLD, 14393 posts
1 Apr 2011 12:57AM
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@ pweedas, yeah i agree. but your comments are not what an environment tax is about.

it is about making alternatives more affordable in the short term.

@ log man. i agree

pweedas
WA, 4642 posts
31 Mar 2011 11:03PM
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The environmet tax is a distraction from the real issue because no matter what the final decision is, it will make no difference.

theDoctor
NSW, 5780 posts
1 Apr 2011 2:05AM
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funny thing about this thread...

petermac33 is the only one who is making any sense.

you idiots would be lining up to buy licences to breath if they told you it would save the planet.

Gestalt
QLD, 14393 posts
1 Apr 2011 1:10AM
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@ pweedas, it seems to be making a difference in the eu.
so what is the real issue?

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
1 Apr 2011 2:16AM
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Mark _australia said...

Gestalt said...

i see,

i pointed out the oxymoron of number one already. just pretend that a green world is a good world and look at the eu who experienced acid rain and then did something.

and number 2 all you have given is your opinion.


aaah but you edited number 1

and number two ..... hmmmm ...... look at the proliferation of creation science in mainstream journals (not!)
There has been some very good science, not to try and disprove evolution as a whole but rather just minor things, which journals refuse to publish.
Or lets say you did a wonderful analysis of JFK's bullet wound, or how buildings blew up in 911, if it tended to even slightly throw doubt upon one little thing in the generally accepted story it would not be published as they see "crackpot" in the first paragraph and bin it. No matter how good the science is...
Just like how the world was flat and bacteria didn't exist and proponents of what we now know were ridiculed. Are we so different now?


"there has been some very good science" ....... no there hasn't. Mark science is an open book. If you come along tomorrow with an alternative theory to any of the accepted theories of science and it stands up to the examination of peer review ......then you are the new heavy weight champion of the world. Creation science is NOT science it is belief and falls to bits under scientific rigor. Evolution seems to fit, there are unanswered questions but the theory is well better that anything postulated so far. All science is doing now is finding the missing bits and when new parts of the jigsaw puzzle are found / and they fit then we are closer to a conclusion. And as for the flat earth, it was the church that insisted that the earth was flat and it was disproved by science. Science proved the earth was round and it proved that the Earth orbited the Sun. Science proved the existence of bacteria. Science is proving the existence of man made global climate change at the expence of other theories of warming. The one thing we can be certain about though is that science will find the truth whether we like it or not.

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
1 Apr 2011 2:24AM
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pweedas said...

Gestalt said...

prove to me why an environment tax won't work.



At last an easy question.
Show me where a new tax on anything reduced it's use.
Did the petrol parity pricing back in the 70's reduce our use of petrol? NO!
And that was a big tax.
Did the 10% GST on everything reduce how much we consumed? No!
Does the ever increasing tax on cigareettes stop people smoking? No!
Does an increase in alcohol tax reduce alcohol consumption? No!

Will adding a carbon tax to petrol prices make people use less petrol? No!
Will adding a carbon tax to power prices make people use less power? No!

Given that modern society is dependent on transport and heavy power consumption, the only answer is to find a way to provide those things in a clean and sustainable way. And windmills and solar cells is not it.





Pweedas, ALL of these things were reduced in usage when there price was increased. The first "oil shock" in the seventies reduced petrol use through the use of smaller cars and driver awareness. every time the government puts the price of cigarettes up the sales go down. It's just the market.

Elroy Jetson
WA, 706 posts
31 Mar 2011 11:27PM
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theDoctor said...

petermac33 is the only one who is making any sense.



You think so?

Petermac and yourself remind me of Statler and Waldorf from the muppet show.




pweedas
WA, 4642 posts
31 Mar 2011 11:28PM
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^^^^ Gestalt
The only difference it's making in the eu is that it's making people feel good about their high energy useage. Same as washing out dog food tins makes us feel we are saving the planet because we recycle.
Give people a little bit of pain so that they can believe they are doing their bit to save the planet.

If the eu reduces their energy use by 20% (and they haven't but say they did,) then this would be totally negated within 2 years by the increasing energy use of China and/or India.

So the "real issue" as I keep saying (writing) is to put some meaningful effort into finding a long term solution to providing cheap and clean energy for the world.
This can be financed by your carbon tax or environment tax or your cigarette tax or any tax you like, but it has to be done.
You can see what science can accomplish when given the incentives to do so by looking at the huge advances in technology whenever we need a better way to blow each other off the planet.
At the start of world war 2 we had wood and canvas aeroplanes that could barely fly 300 miles, and oversized firecrackers for bombs.
Six years later we had metal airliners that could fly 2000 miles and drop atomic bombs that could blow away whole cities. This was all possible due to government paid and directed science.
Plus jet engines and misiles that we could throw across continents at those we didn't like.

And now, when we are faced with "the greatest moral challenge of our time", our action is,... to invest $43 billion of taxpayers money in a high speed porn network.

pweedas
WA, 4642 posts
31 Mar 2011 11:34PM
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log man said...

pweedas said...

Gestalt said...

prove to me why an environment tax won't work.



At last an easy question.
Show me where a new tax on anything reduced it's use.
Did the petrol parity pricing back in the 70's reduce our use of petrol? NO!
And that was a big tax.
Did the 10% GST on everything reduce how much we consumed? No!
Does the ever increasing tax on cigareettes stop people smoking? No!
Does an increase in alcohol tax reduce alcohol consumption? No!

Will adding a carbon tax to petrol prices make people use less petrol? No!
Will adding a carbon tax to power prices make people use less power? No!

Given that modern society is dependent on transport and heavy power consumption, the only answer is to find a way to provide those things in a clean and sustainable way. And windmills and solar cells is not it.





Pweedas, ALL of these things were reduced in usage when there price was increased. The first "oil shock" in the seventies reduced petrol use through the use of smaller cars and driver awareness. every time the government puts the price of cigarettes up the sales go down. It's just the market.


Yes but they were temporary downward blips.
Once the shock wore off the overall trend returned to upwards.
And here we are 30 years later with petrol at around $1.50 a litre and we still buy 2 ton 4wd to pick up the kids from school in.

Cigarette smoking is probably the exception and I put that down to the heavy investment in anti smoking advertisments and health warnings.

Elroy Jetson
WA, 706 posts
1 Apr 2011 12:19AM
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Hang on a sec. The penny just dropped.

So we want to use our present intelligence for the good of humans in the longterm ie. keep planet earth in a reasonable state for our grandchildren to survive on?

We do this by encouraging renewable energy (in some way) from the wind and the sun to power industry, offices and our homes. Yes?

So would this mean that when energy is being produced at its maximum, workplaces will then be working at their full potential and will have to be fully staffed at those times?

So when the seabreeze starts cracking and the sun is up we will all have to drop what we would otherwise be doing and go in to work straight away

Elroy Jetson
WA, 706 posts
1 Apr 2011 12:27AM
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Permission granted Cisco. I have had a quick think about it. You can use the above post for tomorrow's National party disinformation chain email.

Spread the concern across the political spectrum. Make sure it circulates widely to all wind watersport enthusiasts.

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
1 Apr 2011 10:06AM
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pweedas said...

log man said...

pweedas said...

Gestalt said...

prove to me why an environment tax won't work.



At last an easy question.
Show me where a new tax on anything reduced it's use.
Did the petrol parity pricing back in the 70's reduce our use of petrol? NO!
And that was a big tax.
Did the 10% GST on everything reduce how much we consumed? No!
Does the ever increasing tax on cigareettes stop people smoking? No!
Does an increase in alcohol tax reduce alcohol consumption? No!

Will adding a carbon tax to petrol prices make people use less petrol? No!
Will adding a carbon tax to power prices make people use less power? No!

Given that modern society is dependent on transport and heavy power consumption, the only answer is to find a way to provide those things in a clean and sustainable way. And windmills and solar cells is not it.





Pweedas, ALL of these things were reduced in usage when there price was increased. The first "oil shock" in the seventies reduced petrol use through the use of smaller cars and driver awareness. every time the government puts the price of cigarettes up the sales go down. It's just the market.


Yes but they were temporary downward blips.
Once the shock wore off the overall trend returned to upwards.
And here we are 30 years later with petrol at around $1.50 a litre and we still buy 2 ton 4wd to pick up the kids from school in.

Cigarette smoking is probably the exception and I put that down to the heavy investment in anti smoking advertisments and health warnings.


And what funded the anti smoking message? ....the tax on cigarettes. The same thing is going to happen here with the carbon tax. revenue raised by taxing the big polluters returned to the citizens to spend on products that are either high carbon/high cost or low carbon /low cost. The market at work. This will incentivise the energy sector to create new innovation in energy production

felixdcat
WA, 3519 posts
1 Apr 2011 9:23AM
Thumbs Up

very good... and to top it up inflation will go up and the bank will have a very good excuse, all made up to increase the interrest rate. And it will work... high interrest, slow building industry less construction, more ppl staying home unemployed, less driving less carbon.......... now I see how it works![}:)]

doggie
WA, 15849 posts
1 Apr 2011 9:49AM
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theDoctor said...


funny thing about this thread...

petermac33 is the only one who is making any sense.

you idiots would be lining up to buy licences to breath if they told you it would save the planet.


You and Pm33 must be the same person

Al Planet
TAS, 1546 posts
1 Apr 2011 1:14PM
Thumbs Up

I dont know if the maths are correct but
"if the government puts a $25 dollar a tonne price on carbon.....Petrol has a specific gravity of 0.74 and contains 620 grams of carbon. The amount of carbon in a litre of petrol should attract a tax of about 1.6 cent."



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"Carbon Tax May Work after 1000 years!!!" started by cisco