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Hockey stick Mann loses climate denier court case

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Created by FlySurfer > 9 months ago, 28 Aug 2019
log man
VIC, 8289 posts
30 Aug 2019 3:15PM
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Tamble said..
OK, this a is a dangerous area to comment on and I generally don't.
But in a world where simply suggesting that the climate change models might be over-skinning the cat will get you sacked from your university and the hope of getting funding for a contrarian paper let alone published in a peer reviewed journal when all the reviewers are relying on grants that make it necessary to come up with headline worthy disaster outcomes is zilch, maybe a review of published papers isn't the way to find out what most scientists actually think.

You could just ask them (probably preferably anomalously; but I don't know).
The guy who did ( A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members) came up with 52%
journals.ametsoc.org/action/cookieAbsent


You can't just have a "contrarian paper" it has to hang together as a scientific paper. A paper is a paper, it has to prove itself free from any political biases. how many are there? not many.

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
30 Aug 2019 3:26PM
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Kamikuza said..

log man said..
99.4 is the latest........it's gone up!!!




Oh cool. I'll just take your word for it. That's how science works after all and we all know how much the left loves science


I posted the study......I didn't DO the study.......so you don't have to take my word for it.

And as for the Left loving science? well look at all the Climate change deniers. Are they Left or Right? What about conservation ideas in general. The Left dominates. Don't see too many Right wing conservatives involved in it. What about gender theory? the right is still insisting there are 2 genders.....yeah nah.

Face it mate, Conservatives have become a haven for grumpy deadbeat know it alls that think their experiences and knowledge trump science.

Tamble
194 posts
30 Aug 2019 1:26PM
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log man said..

Tamble said..
OK, this a is a dangerous area to comment on and I generally don't.
But in a world where simply suggesting that the climate change models might be over-skinning the cat will get you sacked from your university and the hope of getting funding for a contrarian paper let alone published in a peer reviewed journal when all the reviewers are relying on grants that make it necessary to come up with headline worthy disaster outcomes is zilch, maybe a review of published papers isn't the way to find out what most scientists actually think.

You could just ask them (probably preferably anomalously; but I don't know).
The guy who did ( A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members) came up with 52%
journals.ametsoc.org/action/cookieAbsent



You can't just have a "contrarian paper" it has to hang together as a scientific paper. A paper is a paper, it has to prove itself free from any political biases. how many are there? not many.


Yes. It's always dangerous to use short cut language in this area, even if one ought to know what is being said.

You need to get funding for the research from bodies/organisations which are now heavily populated with those who's professional reputations and future sources of funding research in turn rely on the climate orthodoxy. Then it is peer reviewed by those who also rely on the climate orthodoxy.

Chances of publication. Near zero.

Maybe take the issue up with Peter Ridd to see how it works.

I always try to read both sides of this whole thing. Maybe there's something to AGW, but a number of dubious practices have been exposed by its proponents specifically designed to silence debates, and that's never a good sign - especially in science.

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
30 Aug 2019 10:11PM
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Tamble said..


log man said..



Tamble said..
OK, this a is a dangerous area to comment on and I generally don't.
But in a world where simply suggesting that the climate change models might be over-skinning the cat will get you sacked from your university and the hope of getting funding for a contrarian paper let alone published in a peer reviewed journal when all the reviewers are relying on grants that make it necessary to come up with headline worthy disaster outcomes is zilch, maybe a review of published papers isn't the way to find out what most scientists actually think.

You could just ask them (probably preferably anomalously; but I don't know).
The guy who did ( A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members) came up with 52%
journals.ametsoc.org/action/cookieAbsent





You can't just have a "contrarian paper" it has to hang together as a scientific paper. A paper is a paper, it has to prove itself free from any political biases. how many are there? not many.



You need to get funding for the research from bodies/organisations which are now heavily populated with those who's professional reputations and future sources of funding research in turn rely on the climate orthodoxy. Then it is peer reviewed by those who also rely on the climate orthodoxy.

Chances of publication. Near zero.





I know people like to say that, but really if you want to become the most famous scientist since.....Lord Moncton, then all you have to do is show that the idea of GW that's current is wrong.

Instant fame!

Oh, and, Is there really "2 sides"?

Rango
WA, 697 posts
30 Aug 2019 8:25PM
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Have you even seen the 1990 v 2001 ipcc climate graphs.Looks to me like someone got a stern talking to after their first report.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
30 Aug 2019 10:28PM
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Ooh, doubling-down on the cherry-picked headlines and bad science.

Do you not understand what I'm talking about or do you just not care about the actual science so long as the fable is backing up your narrative?

Nuccitelli was co-author with Cook on at least the original "paper" claiming 97% consensus based on their aggregation of results.

Y'know, the one that had a bunch of authors of the papers they "sampled" write and say things like "that isn't what I said in my paper" or "you're misrepresenting my results".

I'm sure you know all this, I'm sure you don't take these headlines at face value. Surely not.

And because of how much you seem to love The Guardian, here's another article casting doubt on Cook et al's (that includes Dana Nuccitelli) method: www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jun/06/97-consensus-global-warming

And here's why the 97% and Cook et al are bad science: www.econlib.org/archives/2014/03/16_not_97_agree.html

Science is a method, not a result. There have been times in history when all scientists agreed on the science and they were all wrong. Plate tectonics is ironically one such example.

The science on AGW is clear -- mankind is changing the climate. The arguments now are about how much.

So this reductionist protectionism is unnecessary ... unless you have to protect your ideological narrative because your scientific method is so bad. Can you say "dogma" children?

In other words, you're spinning **** to drive the narrative because you don't care about the actual science.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
30 Aug 2019 10:34PM
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log man said..
I posted the study......I didn't DO the study.......so you don't have to take my word for it.

And as for the Left loving science? well look at all the Climate change deniers. Are they Left or Right? What about conservation ideas in general. The Left dominates. Don't see too many Right wing conservatives involved in it. What about gender theory? the right is still insisting there are 2 genders.....yeah nah.

Face it mate, Conservatives have become a haven for grumpy deadbeat know it alls that think their experiences and knowledge trump science.


... you didn't actually even look at "the study" did you? Your confirmation bias just latched onto it and now has it in death grip like a teenage boy and his first Penthouse.

Theodore Roosevelt, who pretty much started conservation movement in the US, was ... a Republican. Look it up.

"the right" ... the whole of "the right" insist there are 2 genders.

What, every single person on "the right"?

Are you sure? I mean, are you absolutely certain?

Are you sure that they are so uniform in their beliefs?

I mean, even the neo-Nazi groups in the US don't agree on things like immigration ... so how can you make such sweeping generalizations about "the right"?

Ohh yeah, you're strawmanning. Again. The second favorite thing "the left" loves to do, next to pushing feels over facts.

I couldn't care if Mao, Stalin and Bernie Sanders did the science -- so long as they did it properly.

Stop pushing bad science.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
30 Aug 2019 10:43PM
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log man said..
Oh, and, Is there really "2 sides"?



With regards to the 97%, there are MORE than 2 sides ... the problem is that like Cook, people with a narrative to push, have reduced it to two sides. They've lumped such data as "man is the main cause" in with "man is a cause" and magicked the 97% out of much lower figures, as well as taking implication as endorsement and ignoring papers that took no position: judithcurry.com/2015/12/20/what-is-there-a-97-consensus-about/

Read his own paper. It's right there.

Don't do bad science. Not even once.

Mr Milk
NSW, 2990 posts
30 Aug 2019 11:22PM
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"man is a cause" is the only variable that we can influence

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
31 Aug 2019 1:13PM
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Mr Milk said..
"man is a cause" is the only variable that we can influence


Not necessarily. But it's a good place to start.

NotWal
QLD, 7428 posts
31 Aug 2019 8:28PM
Thumbs Up

Tamble said..

log man said..


Tamble said..
OK, this a is a dangerous area to comment on and I generally don't.
But in a world where simply suggesting that the climate change models might be over-skinning the cat will get you sacked from your university and the hope of getting funding for a contrarian paper let alone published in a peer reviewed journal when all the reviewers are relying on grants that make it necessary to come up with headline worthy disaster outcomes is zilch, maybe a review of published papers isn't the way to find out what most scientists actually think.

You could just ask them (probably preferably anomalously; but I don't know).
The guy who did ( A Survey of American Meteorological Society Professional Members) came up with 52%
journals.ametsoc.org/action/cookieAbsent




You can't just have a "contrarian paper" it has to hang together as a scientific paper. A paper is a paper, it has to prove itself free from any political biases. how many are there? not many.



Yes. It's always dangerous to use short cut language in this area, even if one ought to know what is being said.

You need to get funding for the research from bodies/organisations which are now heavily populated with those who's professional reputations and future sources of funding research in turn rely on the climate orthodoxy. Then it is peer reviewed by those who also rely on the climate orthodoxy.

Chances of publication. Near zero.

Maybe take the issue up with Peter Ridd to see how it works.

I always try to read both sides of this whole thing. Maybe there's something to AGW, but a number of dubious practices have been exposed by its proponents specifically designed to silence debates, and that's never a good sign - especially in science.


There's plenty of funding available for contrarian climate science from fossil fuel industries.
Peer reviewers don't put their reputation on the line for anything other than as proper impartial and rigorous scientific reviewers.
In short if the science is sound it will get published.

As a general principal in science contrarianism is a virtue. Good science is value free and new science very often knocks over consensus science. If it's not happening like that there's some kind of corruption involved.

The way it looks is that the fossil fuel industry stands to lose $ and they are reacting by mounting a science free FUD campaign for the unqualified opinions and votes of the great unwashed masses and their representatives in government.



NotWal
QLD, 7428 posts
31 Aug 2019 8:36PM
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Kamikuza said..


Theodore Roosevelt, who pretty much started conservation movement in the US, was ... a Republican. Look it up.




Just a quibble; TR was a Republican of the old school. The GOP and Dems swapped some principles and changed dramatically in the 60s. TD had more in common with the current Dems than the current GOP vis a vis conservation and civil rights.

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
31 Aug 2019 10:53PM
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Kamikuza said..


log man said..
Oh, and, Is there really "2 sides"?





With regards to the 97%, there are MORE than 2 sides ... the problem is that like Cook, people with a narrative to push, have reduced it to two sides. They've lumped such data as "man is the main cause" in with "man is a cause" and magicked the 97% out of much lower figures, as well as taking implication as endorsement and ignoring papers that took no position: judithcurry.com/2015/12/20/what-is-there-a-97-consensus-about/

Read his own paper. It's right there.

Don't do bad science. Not even once.



Judith curry..... haha! I know what you are. You're a denier from years back who's now trying to save face but still thinks people like Curry are credible.
this is brilliant we now get to see a climate denier trying to climb down with out getting splinters up his arse.
This is the sort of thing I could write a new telly show on.

japie
NSW, 6868 posts
31 Aug 2019 11:05PM
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Mark Windows talks about the history of Climate Change on the Richie Allen show. He talks about the origins starting with the Brundtland report in 1987 after it was decided that the old world system was not working and was to be replaced by the 4th World.

Interview starts at thirty minutes in:

.be

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
1 Sep 2019 10:57AM
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NotWal said..
Just a quibble; TR was a Republican of the old school. The GOP and Dems swapped some principles and changed dramatically in the 60s. TD had more in common with the current Dems than the current GOP vis a vis conservation and civil rights.


Right. He was even more progressive than the rest of the GOP ... but compared to today, he's still pretty conservative.

log jam would have you believe that knowing one item about a person's beliefs informs you of the rest of their opinions.

Prejudice is okay when you're a progressive "liberal"

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
1 Sep 2019 11:14AM
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log man said..
Judith curry..... haha! I know what you are. You're a denier from years back who's now trying to save face but still thinks people like Curry are credible.
this is brilliant we now get to see a climate denier trying to climb down with out getting splinters up his arse.
This is the sort of thing I could write a new telly show on.


Proving my point again and again.

"The left", and it seems especially you, are not interested in science (or even discussion of the science!) unless it reinforces your narrative.

That link wasn't about climate change or whatever, it was specifically about the bad science Cook et al produced. Again for the slow reader -- not about climate change itself, about the bad science Cook got up to.
www.joseduarte.com/blog/cooking-stove-use-housing-associations-white-males-and-the-97

I've made my position on AGW pretty clear, and you're 100% wrong. Again. What a shock. But don't let that stand in the way of your strawmanning.

You're so engaged in the ideology you simply can't allow any challenge to the dogma. Nothing new there, "the left" has had this problem forever.

BTW Curry has written two books and published 150 papers on climate change. Just wondering where I can read yours, log jam? I mean, you're obviously in a position of intellectual and educational superiority with the research to back up your dismissal of people like Curry?

...this science stuff is all a bit beyond you, isn't it?

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
1 Sep 2019 7:30PM
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Kamikuza said..

log man said..
Judith curry..... haha! I know what you are. You're a denier from years back who's now trying to save face but still thinks people like Curry are credible.
this is brilliant we now get to see a climate denier trying to climb down with out getting splinters up his arse.
This is the sort of thing I could write a new telly show on.



Proving my point again and again.

"The left", and it seems especially you, are not interested in science (or even discussion of the science!) unless it reinforces your narrative.

That link wasn't about climate change or whatever, it was specifically about the bad science Cook et al produced. Again for the slow reader -- not about climate change itself, about the bad science Cook got up to.
www.joseduarte.com/blog/cooking-stove-use-housing-associations-white-males-and-the-97

I've made my position on AGW pretty clear, and you're 100% wrong. Again. What a shock. But don't let that stand in the way of your strawmanning.

You're so engaged in the ideology you simply can't allow any challenge to the dogma. Nothing new there, "the left" has had this problem forever.

BTW Curry has written two books and published 150 papers on climate change. Just wondering where I can read yours, log jam? I mean, you're obviously in a position of intellectual and educational superiority with the research to back up your dismissal of people like Curry?

...this science stuff is all a bit beyond you, isn't it?


Just on Curry.

skepticalscience.com/Judith_Curry_arg.htm
www.desmogblog.com/judith-curry

Seems Curry is the deniers go to scientist......even though she says some things the that are totally rejected by the mass of climatologists.


Just on Cook:
skepticalscience.com/vide-cook-97-percent.html


skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-robust.html

climate.nasa.gov/blog/938/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/15/research-shows-yet-again-that-theres-no-scientific-debate-about-climate-change/

www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/03/is-the-climate-consensus-97-999-or-is-plate-tectonics-a-hoax

BTW. Cooks study isn't "the science" it's a report on the scientists thoughts. The scientists do the actual science and people like Cook and Oreskes report on it. In fact Cooks study is hardly important to anybody who backs science and scientists. Most people really don't get upset if it's 97 or 99 or 80. We all know a vast number of scientist agree. The only people who lose their **** about whether or not it's 99. whatever are GW deniers who are searching for any, any little desperate argument.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
1 Sep 2019 8:55PM
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log man said..
Just on Curry.

skepticalscience.com/Judith_Curry_arg.htm
www.desmogblog.com/judith-curry

Seems Curry is the deniers go to scientist......even though she says some things the that are totally rejected by the mass of climatologists.


Just on Cook:
skepticalscience.com/vide-cook-97-percent.html


skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-robust.html

climate.nasa.gov/blog/938/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/15/research-shows-yet-again-that-theres-no-scientific-debate-about-climate-change/

www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/03/is-the-climate-consensus-97-999-or-is-plate-tectonics-a-hoax

BTW. Cooks study isn't "the science" it's a report on the scientists thoughts. The scientists do the actual science and people like Cook and Oreskes report on it. In fact Cooks study is hardly important to anybody who backs science and scientists. Most people really don't get upset if it's 97 or 99 or 80. We all know a vast number of scientist agree. The only people who lose their **** about whether or not it's 99. whatever are GW deniers who are searching for any, any little desperate argument.



Skeptical Science is Cook and his pals... They set that website/blog up specifically because their paper was getting flack. Cook's PhD paper IIRC.

Your last Guardian link is by a guy who also worked on the original paper, as I've already said. Vested interests, you say?

There's no debate about certain aspects of climate change.

There IS about how Cook put his paper together, what the numbers he presented actually represent and how they went about it. You know, the methodology -- the science of doing science itself. Unrelated to the topic of climate change,

I realize now you can't understand the difference

The consensus *may* be 97% among scientists, but "the scientist's thoughts" isn't even what Cook's paper was about. Which you'd know, if you'd even bothered looking at the abstract of the paper...!

But hey, I get it, it's a religion, you can't have the dogma questioned in any way in case you lose control of the narrative...just ask Cook himself:

"If the public think that climate scientists agree about what is causing global warming, then the public thinks we need to act on it," he said. "If the public thinks scientists disagree, then we might as well wait until the scientists work it out before we do anything about it."
www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-determine-the-scientific-consensus-on-global-warming/

All about the narrative. Wouldn't be the first scientist to fudge the facts for the cause.

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
1 Sep 2019 10:14PM
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log man said..
Just on Curry.

skepticalscience.com/Judith_Curry_arg.htm
www.desmogblog.com/judith-curry

Seems Curry is the deniers go to scientist......even though she says some things the that are totally rejected by the mass of climatologists.


Just on Cook:
skepticalscience.com/vide-cook-97-percent.html


skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-robust.html

climate.nasa.gov/blog/938/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/04/15/research-shows-yet-again-that-theres-no-scientific-debate-about-climate-change/

www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/03/is-the-climate-consensus-97-999-or-is-plate-tectonics-a-hoax
Kamikuza said..



There IS about how Cook put his paper together, what the numbers he presented actually represent and how they went about it. You know, the methodology -- the science of doing science itself. Unrelated to the topic of climate change,



mate no one cares about cook and 90 percent or whatever.......it's only deniers trying to poke a tiny hole in the gw thing.

Denier, yes, denier......what else would you call someone that calls GW "a religion"...... cites Curry, a champion of the deniers......argues about whether or not there's consensus.

Rango
WA, 697 posts
2 Sep 2019 7:01AM
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So what you're saying is by deleting past climactic events is not trying to persuade a narative.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
2 Sep 2019 1:08PM
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log man said.
mate no one cares about cook and 90 percent or whatever.......it's only deniers trying to poke a tiny hole in the gw thing.

Denier, yes, denier......what else would you call someone that calls GW "a religion"...... cites Curry, a champion of the deniers......argues about whether or not there's consensus.



Mate they do, you'd know that if you'd read what Cook wrote about his reason for publishing the paper. And you keep bringing it up as proof of ... something.

It's not poking holes in AGW, it's poking holes in a poorly done study.

No, I called your treatment of AGW a religion -- you treat the "science" like dogma that can't be challenged. You have your infallible prophets and your heretics who dare question them.

That's NOT science.

You're exactly the problem "the left" has today -- a mirror image of the idiots on "the right".

I only had one point, it was a simple point, and you have proven it again and again for me. Thanks!

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
2 Sep 2019 2:20PM
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Kamikuza said..

log man said.
mate no one cares about cook and 90 percent or whatever.......it's only deniers trying to poke a tiny hole in the gw thing.

Denier, yes, denier......what else would you call someone that calls GW "a religion"...... cites Curry, a champion of the deniers......argues about whether or not there's consensus.


No, I called your treatment of AGW a religion -- you treat the "science" like dogma that can't be challenged. You have your infallible prophets and your heretics who dare question them.

That's NOT science.



Ok, let's not call it science then........lets call it the worst bit of science eva

Does that mean we agree on the thousands of other papers, written by actual climate scientists that conclude that the science is very strong and reliable.

Why would this 99.9 guy get your attention?

hilly
WA, 7322 posts
2 Sep 2019 12:24PM
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Kamikuza said..
No, I called your treatment of AGW a religion -- you treat the "science" like dogma that can't be challenged. You have your infallible prophets and your heretics who dare question them.



Thought the science was pretty compelling now eg climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Rango
WA, 697 posts
2 Sep 2019 2:07PM
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Nasa +Un=97%

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
2 Sep 2019 5:24PM
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log man said.
Why would this 99.9 guy get your attention?


Because you said you were all about the science, unlike "the right" who are morons and will believe anything.

I said "the left" only cares about the science when it supports their narrative.

I introduced the Cook paper, because it's a great, simple example of bad science being presented as pure fact to support the narrative.

The result was predictable, and proved my point.

Got it now? It's not about AGW or climate change.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
2 Sep 2019 5:31PM
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hilly said..
Thought the science was pretty compelling now eg climate.nasa.gov/evidence/


That's correct. But it's not the point here and that is not what the Cook paper was about.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
2 Sep 2019 5:45PM
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Foghorn said..
Nasa +Un=97%


This is partially what this whole thing is about -- what is the consensus actually about?

climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/ (notice they also list Cook's papers as references)

Look at the statements -- actually read them and notice the phrasing they use to describe the extent to which mankind is affecting it.They all agree that man is contributing to climate change, but none of them actually agree on the degree of impact we're having.

Which is the problem with the Cook paper and its presentation to the public: misrepresenting the details with a reductionist headline.

Kamikuza
QLD, 6493 posts
2 Sep 2019 5:50PM
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And it just begs the question: what's going on with the 3%? That's like 360 studies that produced a different answer...

I thought Big Oil had more money...

Rango
WA, 697 posts
2 Sep 2019 3:56PM
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Kamikuza said..
And it just begs the question: what's going on with the 3%? That's like 360 studies that produced a different answer...

I thought Big Oil had more money...


I don't think oil companies care as they know they will be needed for every last drop.
.

log man
VIC, 8289 posts
2 Sep 2019 5:58PM
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Kamikuza said..

log man said.
Why would this 99.9 guy get your attention?



Because you said you were all about the science, unlike "the right" who are morons and will believe anything.

I said "the left" only cares about the science when it supports their narrative.

I introduced the Cook paper, because it's a great, simple example of bad science being presented as pure fact to support the narrative.

The result was predictable, and proved my point.

Got it now? It's not about AGW or climate change.


so you're all hung up about the 99 percent thing. why hang your hat on that. It seems incredibly strange to say. "yes i agree that human induced climate change is real and happening and we need to do something about it ........but im outraged about whether 97 percent of a poll of scientists is accurate".........It's like saying You agree with the IPCC report but you're totally appalled by the font they used in the report.



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Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...


"Hockey stick Mann loses climate denier court case" started by FlySurfer