Select to expand quotelaceys lane said..Macaha said..SP said..Macaha said..laceys lane said..
I was happy to see a bloke who likes his boats and e-bikes going for a walk for exercise today.
I think he has finally got the message
I also did a party pump but no parties allowed
Few. I though it was Gold Coast slang for gang bang 
No swingers parties allowed anymore 
Sp. They are all suss north of Tallebudgera ck
Haha
Select to expand quoteMickPC said..Cuttlefish said..Cobra said..
it is so so so ****n early with numbers.
if you look at the death toll verse contracted cases ,last i looked was running just under 5% was lower at start.
why do people say,,,, influenza kills thousands a year and we don't stop the country...
.stop thinking this is influenza FFS influenza A & B runs about 1%. influenzas are a runny nose compared to this.
people stay at home and stop looking for bull**** reasons to leave your home. **** i would hate to see how their self entitled kids behave .
Where do your stats come from and for what country?
Latest stats from Australia:
www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers.
7 News gave the figure of 5103 cases with 23 deaths so far.
I'm crap at maths but isn't that 0.451 percent?
Thing to note in that news report. See the medico giving a swab to a patient early in the report. Notice the ceiling fan swirling around above?
This relates to the other virus spreading in the sea air topic in the surfing allowed thread.
Also take note of the footage being shown of hospital interiors and patients. Background filler shots of "normal" scenes with only 3 scenes in the report that look like Covid-19 situations. I studied for a bachelor of business with a major in journalism that also included strands in public relations and advertising so I know the tricks of the trade.
We need to continue to take precautions to avoid the spread of this virus. Eat well, take vitamins, multi, D & C. Go for a walk, ride, jog, avoid stopping to chat & don't use public facilities to go to the toilet. Go behind a tree or head home.
But yeah just to add to the stats Cuttlefish. The majority of people seeking testing to confirm if they have contracted the virus are told to self isolate unless they work in health, have returned from overseas or are deemed to be in the at risk category. So the actual number of people with the virus is actually much higher than what has been confirmed. There are people out there who don't show any symptoms.
Also unless bloods are taken true confirmation can not be made. The 5 min test kits the US are now using only indicate the individual could possibly have C19. All positives will be reported as C19, the data will be incorrect.
Italy have been over reporting C19 as the cause of death & China has been under reporting. Only cruise ships can provide a true representation of correct stats, however the majority of those people are elderly which also effects true representation.
At the end of the day, I feel we will be fine health wise. Fatalities may well be similar to previous years. I'm more concerned about the economy & our nations mental health. I hope the suicide rate does not exceed the C19 fatalities.
Australia needs to chill the fark out or we could have a lot more to worry about than C19.
Yeah. I would bet there are more with it then whats being reported when they wont test
Select to expand quoteMickPC said..Cuttlefish said..Cobra said..
it is so so so ****n early with numbers.
if you look at the death toll verse contracted cases ,last i looked was running just under 5% was lower at start.
why do people say,,,, influenza kills thousands a year and we don't stop the country...
.stop thinking this is influenza FFS influenza A & B runs about 1%. influenzas are a runny nose compared to this.
people stay at home and stop looking for bull**** reasons to leave your home. **** i would hate to see how their self entitled kids behave .
Where do your stats come from and for what country?
Latest stats from Australia:
www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers.
7 News gave the figure of 5103 cases with 23 deaths so far.
I'm crap at maths but isn't that 0.451 percent?
Thing to note in that news report. See the medico giving a swab to a patient early in the report. Notice the ceiling fan swirling around above?
This relates to the other virus spreading in the sea air topic in the surfing allowed thread.
Also take note of the footage being shown of hospital interiors and patients. Background filler shots of "normal" scenes with only 3 scenes in the report that look like Covid-19 situations. I studied for a bachelor of business with a major in journalism that also included strands in public relations and advertising so I know the tricks of the trade.
We need to continue to take precautions to avoid the spread of this virus. Eat well, take vitamins, multi, D & C. Go for a walk, ride, jog, avoid stopping to chat & don't use public facilities to go to the toilet. Go behind a tree or head home.
But yeah just to add to the stats Cuttlefish. The majority of people seeking testing to confirm if they have contracted the virus are told to self isolate unless they work in health, have returned from overseas or are deemed to be in the at risk category. So the actual number of people with the virus is actually much higher than what has been confirmed. There are people out there who don't show any symptoms.
Also unless bloods are taken true confirmation can not be made. The 5 min test kits the US are now using only indicate the individual could possibly have C19. All positives will be reported as C19, the data will be incorrect.
Italy have been over reporting C19 as the cause of death & China has been under reporting. Only cruise ships can provide a true representation of correct stats, however the majority of those people are elderly which also effects true representation.
At the end of the day, I feel we will be fine health wise. Fatalities may well be similar to previous years. I'm more concerned about the economy & our nations mental health. I hope the suicide rate does not exceed the C19 fatalities.
Australia needs to chill the fark out or we could have a lot more to worry about than C19.
ha mick and forget about held Numbers from Iran china Russia and the forgotten numbers from Africa & indo
Select to expand quoteMickPC said..Cuttlefish said..Cobra said..
it is so so so ****n early with numbers.
if you look at the death toll verse contracted cases ,last i looked was running just under 5% was lower at start.
why do people say,,,, influenza kills thousands a year and we don't stop the country...
.stop thinking this is influenza FFS influenza A & B runs about 1%. influenzas are a runny nose compared to this.
people stay at home and stop looking for bull**** reasons to leave your home. **** i would hate to see how their self entitled kids behave .
Where do your stats come from and for what country?
Latest stats from Australia:
www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers.
7 News gave the figure of 5103 cases with 23 deaths so far.
I'm crap at maths but isn't that 0.451 percent?
Thing to note in that news report. See the medico giving a swab to a patient early in the report. Notice the ceiling fan swirling around above?
This relates to the other virus spreading in the sea air topic in the surfing allowed thread.
Also take note of the footage being shown of hospital interiors and patients. Background filler shots of "normal" scenes with only 3 scenes in the report that look like Covid-19 situations. I studied for a bachelor of business with a major in journalism that also included strands in public relations and advertising so I know the tricks of the trade.
We need to continue to take precautions to avoid the spread of this virus. Eat well, take vitamins, multi, D & C. Go for a walk, ride, jog, avoid stopping to chat & don't use public facilities to go to the toilet. Go behind a tree or head home.
But yeah just to add to the stats Cuttlefish. The majority of people seeking testing to confirm if they have contracted the virus are told to self isolate unless they work in health, have returned from overseas or are deemed to be in the at risk category. So the actual number of people with the virus is actually much higher than what has been confirmed. There are people out there who don't show any symptoms.
Also unless bloods are taken true confirmation can not be made. The 5 min test kits the US are now using only indicate the individual could possibly have C19. All positives will be reported as C19, the data will be incorrect.
Italy have been over reporting C19 as the cause of death & China has been under reporting. Only cruise ships can provide a true representation of correct stats, however the majority of those people are elderly which also effects true representation.
At the end of the day, I feel we will be fine health wise. Fatalities may well be similar to previous years. I'm more concerned about the economy & our nations mental health. I hope the suicide rate does not exceed the C19 fatalities.
Australia needs to chill the fark out or we could have a lot more to worry about than C19.
Good info. Much appreciated.
Select to expand quoteSP said..Hydromann said..MickPC said..Hydromann said..
Good luck driving to the beach. cops are starting to fine people for non essential travel. And apparently traveling to the beach to exercise (surf) is now deemed non essential.
Ran the numbers, in WA you have a 1 in 5000 chance of bumping into a Covid case, and if you practice safe distancing and good hygiene you have a net zero chance of picking it up.
I get the need to enforce behavioral changes to stop the spread, but seriously fining people $1000 for a trip to the beach?
Have to keep telling myself to suck it up, just suck it up boy.
I'm not having a go at you here, could you please provide more information. Is this factual, did it happen to you or did you hear of it happening to someone else?
My understanding is that restrictions for outdoor "Leisure and recreation" is limited to 10 people & social distancing must be adhered to as outlined on the government website;
www.wa.gov.au/organisation/department-of-the-premier-and-cabinet/covid-19-coronavirus-community-advice
At the moment all I can find for police actually stopping people is the following article & its in regard to crossing boundaries.
www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-travel-restrictions-in-wa-toughest-in-australia/12108868
Based upon the current "advice" & boundary restrictions there is nothing to say you can't go to the beach for recreational activities provided you are not operating a boat (that is not your home), crossing boundaries or entering within 1.5m proximity of someones personal space.
Its important that people stand up for their rights as they are steadily being chipped away from us like the Victorians did with the bonk ban.
www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/victoria-backflips-on-partner-visit-rule2/3986902/
Governments never fail to take advantage of a crisis & we need to remain vigilant in what is going on in the background as the world is blindsided by this virus. They could use this to make changes which may not be reversed in the future.
I'm not saying to not follow advice to reduce the spread of the virus, but if we allow precedent for them taking away our freedom for things unrelated or going way too far with things like that bonk ban. They could exercise the same measures in future because we've allowed them to do so.
Australia typically has 1500 to 3000 deaths from influenza every year;
www.isg.org.au/index.php/clinical-information/influenza-fast-facts-/
So far there have been 21 deaths from C19, it will be interesting to see what it gets up to within 12 months;
www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers
I'm not downplaying the virus, I have elderly parents I call each day to check on & encourage to take precautions. Although mum was a nurse for over 40 years so she knows a thing or 2 about infection control.
But...Australia has this or that Influenza every year, most of the time we don't brand them & the media doesn't run stories like. The Australian deathrate "JUMPED today, by "1".
In the end we will need to look back & ask if this was handled correctly. The media & government will most likely tell us that they did & next time it happens they will do the same thing which will essentially allow them to do it every year. So far I feel decisions have been made with fear rather than fact. Only time will tell if this was either the biggest psyops of all time or not.
It sure stopped all the protests around the world & at least we're not talking about climate change, bushfires, LGBQLSD rights, diversity, womens workplace stuff & all the other BS lefty nonsense. I can now watch the news without shouting "thats BS" & getting angry
Here, here Mick.
Well spoken and almost word for word what I would say.
Stats are that you have a one in 5000 chance of bumping into a known carrier. Then if you do contract it you have about a one in 500 chance of dying. Obviously elevated if you are in a high risk category.
But even if you do cross paths with a spreader your chances of contracting it are significantly reduced if you follow social distancing recommendations and practice good hygiene, sanitise etc.
Our health Minister has clearly stated that the objective is to flatten the curve so that infrastructure can cope. The last thing they want is greater social unrest and panic if the system crumbles.
But to answer your question. My wife told me based on her social media feed. So no I don't have a direct link or information beyond that. And given how pissed off she is at me for even suggesting that I was going surfing you have got me wondering if she has reverted to being a manipulating shrew.
Strange days indeed.
She keeps barking on about essential travel only etc. I will take a good look at your links so that I know the facts rather than her fiction.
Exponential curve and varying testing numbers everyday.
You'd need to do more than divide the cases by population to get a representative stat.
The rule is simple.
Stay the **** home unless it is essential.
Get ready to give up surfing and other freedoms until October mate.
Got a family friend that is the personal assistant for a federal MP. Lockdown is happening, incremental and controlled so as to allow people to adjust like frog in a saucepan, a slow boil.
And watch the speech they use. Always trying to not call it what it actually is and will be.
I get the whole responsibility thing and showing consideration etc as well as social distancing and personal hygiene.
And what are we all doing this for? Essentially because no one wants to see granny die, and fair call on that.
But you know what would have been cheaper and easier?
Round up all the elderly and high risk in nursing homes and set them all up in isolation in 5 star hotels in place of the terrible conditions that so many are subjected to.
Have clean hotels, infected hotels and recovery hotels.
Anyone endangered or infected goes to the appropriate hotel.
They can be monitored and policed as they are all contained. And the rest of society can just get on with things and be tested regularly to monitor outbreaks.
No shutdown of everything. Society and commerce keeps working. Not rocket science, significantly reduced risk of spreading and the economy whilst knocked around keeps working.
It's exactly what ancient people groups practiced over millenia to control the spread of all types viruses and diseases.
Select to expand quotebazz61 said..MickPC said..Hydromann said..
Good luck driving to the beach. cops are starting to fine people for non essential travel. And apparently traveling to the beach to exercise (surf) is now deemed non essential.
Ran the numbers, in WA you have a 1 in 5000 chance of bumping into a Covid case, and if you practice safe distancing and good hygiene you have a net zero chance of picking it up.
I get the need to enforce behavioral changes to stop the spread, but seriously fining people $1000 for a trip to the beach?
Have to keep telling myself to suck it up, just suck it up boy.
I'm not having a go at you here, could you please provide more information. Is this factual, did it happen to you or did you hear of it happening to someone else?
My understanding is that restrictions for outdoor "Leisure and recreation" is limited to 10 people & social distancing must be adhered to as outlined on the government website;
www.wa.gov.au/organisation/department-of-the-premier-and-cabinet/covid-19-coronavirus-community-advice
At the moment all I can find for police actually stopping people is the following article & its in regard to crossing boundaries.
www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-travel-restrictions-in-wa-toughest-in-australia/12108868
Based upon the current "advice" & boundary restrictions there is nothing to say you can't go to the beach for recreational activities provided you are not operating a boat (that is not your home), crossing boundaries or entering within 1.5m proximity of someones personal space.
Its important that people stand up for their rights as they are steadily being chipped away from us like the Victorians did with the bonk ban.
www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/victoria-backflips-on-partner-visit-rule2/3986902/
Governments never fail to take advantage of a crisis & we need to remain vigilant in what is going on in the background as the world is blindsided by this virus. They could use this to make changes which may not be reversed in the future.
I'm not saying to not follow advice to reduce the spread of the virus, but if we allow precedent for them taking away our freedom for things unrelated or going way too far with things like that bonk ban. They could exercise the same measures in future because we've allowed them to do so.
Australia typically has 1500 to 3000 deaths from influenza every year;
www.isg.org.au/index.php/clinical-information/influenza-fast-facts-/
So far there have been 21 deaths from C19, it will be interesting to see what it gets up to within 12 months;
www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers
I'm not downplaying the virus, I have elderly parents I call each day to check on & encourage to take precautions. Although mum was a nurse for over 40 years so she knows a thing or 2 about infection control.
But...Australia has this or that Influenza every year, most of the time we don't brand them & the media doesn't run stories like. The Australian deathrate "JUMPED today, by "1".
In the end we will need to look back & ask if this was handled correctly. The media & government will most likely tell us that they did & next time it happens they will do the same thing which will essentially allow them to do it every year. So far I feel decisions have been made with fear rather than fact. Only time will tell if this was either the biggest psyops of all time or not.
It sure stopped all the protests around the world & at least we're not talking about climate change, bushfires, LGBQLSD rights, diversity, womens workplace stuff & all the other BS lefty nonsense. I can now watch the news without shouting "thats BS" & getting angry
obviously you wear the pants ...but she tells you what color and when to take them off /on ... happy wife happy life so they say .
Hahaha ... Gold. But I never get asked to take them off.
Select to expand quotecuttle FYI
from Lancet Infectious Diseases
As of March 1, 2020, 79?968 patients in China and 7169 outside of China had tested positive for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
1Among Chinese patients, 2873 deaths had occurred, equivalent to a mortality rate of 3?6% (95% CI 3?5-3?7), while 104 deaths from COVID-19 had been reported outside of China (1?5% [1?2-1?7]). However, these mortality rate estimates are based on the number of deaths relative to the number of confirmed cases of infection, which is not representative of the actual death rate; patients who die on any given day were infected much earlier, and thus the denominator of the mortality rate should be the total number of patients infected at the same time as those who died. Notably, the full denominator remains unknown because asymptomatic cases or patients with very mild symptoms might not be tested and will not be identified. Such cases therefore cannot be included in the estimation of actual mortality rates, since actual estimates pertain to clinically apparent COVID-19 cases.
We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5?6% (95% CI 5?4-5?8) for China and 15?2% (12?5-17?9) outside of China. Global mortality rates over time using a 14-day delay estimate are shown in the figure, with a curve that levels off to a rate of 5?7% (5?5-5?9), converging with the current WHO estimates. Estimates will increase if a longer delay between onset of illness and death is considered. A recent time-delay adjusted estimation indicates that mortality rate of COVID-19 could be as high as 20% in Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak.
6 These findings show that the current figures might underestimate the potential threat of COVID-19 in symptomatic patients.
so considering a month ago we were looking at 3.6% mortality to a prediction of around 5.5 to 5.9%
i think they have a fair idea of where we are at.
Select to expand quoteCobra said..
so considering a month ago we were looking at 3.6% mortality to a prediction of around 5.5 to 5.9%
i think they have a fair idea of where we are at.
Yep.
The big issue is the growth rate in transmission and how this trnaslates into a growth in death rate.
And if you compare that to the the rates in influenza, which has a vaccine this thing is bad. The flu has essentially no measures to prevent its spread where as this thing is already being controlled in every country yet we see huge amount of deaths. That makes statistically comparing it to the flu a very flawed measure.
If transmission isn't controlled then the growth rate will increase very quickly and Death rates will sky-rocket. The growth and death rates aren't straight lines they are both exponential curves.
Select to expand quotelaceys lane said..
Did anyone read andrew bolts piece in the papers today.
Any thoughts
Geez, reading Andrew Bolts column...
Are you doing OK mate.
I will hava read of Bolty's take on this next, the man has offered some refreshing commentary over the last couple of years in comparison to the over burdened lefty BS most Oz jurno's have been infected with.
Will be interesting to see how Sweden goes with its approach.
www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2020/04/01/why-is-coronavirus-fear-so-low-in-sweden/#7f8a2ff43870
Select to expand quoteCobra said..
so considering a month ago we were looking at 3.6% mortality to a prediction of around 5.5 to 5.9%
i think they have a fair idea of where we are at.
5103 Australian cases and 23 deaths still works out at 0.0451%? Compared to the global cases at 5% ( 5% as you correctly pointed out).
Good to have as much information as possible.
Cruise ships and aged care where the proper action wasn't taken. Ruby princess passengers 5 dead. Dorothy Henderson lodge 5 dead. That's 10 out of 23.
Select to expand quoteSP said..laceys lane said..
Did anyone read andrew bolts piece in the papers today.
Any thoughts
Geez, reading Andrew Bolts column...
Are you doing OK mate.
You didnt answer i noticed
Push bike and shoe shops must be doing a raring trade,seems every man and women are on bikes or walking.
Got in a surf as my exercise for the day. Settled on a local.
Not before looking at palmy.
Couldnt get away from there quick enough..
No one has told them about covid 19
Very crowded and lots for people milling around the surf club park.
Bastards will get us all kicked out of the ocean which is looking its going to 6 months of restrictions
Select to expand quotelaceys lane said..
Go in a surf as my exercise for the day. Settled on local.
Not before looking at palmy.
Couldnt get away from there quick enough..
No one has told them about covid 19
Very crowded and lots for people milling around the surf club park.
Bastards will get us all kicked out of the ocean which is looking its going to 6 months of restrictions
No brains south of Burleigh ( just saying )
Select to expand quoteMacaha said..laceys lane said..
Go in a surf as my exercise for the day. Settled on local.
Not before looking at palmy.
Couldnt get away from there quick enough..
No one has told them about covid 19
Very crowded and lots for people milling around the surf club park.
Bastards will get us all kicked out of the ocean which is looking its going to 6 months of restrictions
No brains south of Burleigh ( just saying )
Are you linking swingers and brain surgeons
Ahhh. Its been a while. Great to see the longboard crew keeping it real. Love ya work.
