Select to expand quoteKamikuza said..FormulaNova said..
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this makes it more serious than SARS was
It's objectively not more serious than SARS.
Well, it has a lower CFR than SARS did. Possibly, the jury is still out on that one.
But the transmission rate and stealth of it is what makes it definitely more dangerous.
Select to expand quotekiterboy said..
Well, it has a lower CFR than SARS did. Possibly, the jury is still out on that one.
But the transmission rate and stealth of it is what makes it definitely more dangerous.
More infectious, less deadly is what it looks like to me. And MASSIVELY over-represented in the media especially compared to SARS etc.
Social media. Worse that COVID19 for mind viruses.
Select to expand quotekiterboy said..japie said..
She said there had been a bit and that the general consensus is that it is a massive media hype.
I don't get this line of reasoning...mainly cause there isn't one.
If it's all just media hype, why did China lock down 11 million people in Wuhan, right back at the start when only 60 people had died?
Why is Italy locked down etc...?
Where/how does the media hype come into it?
I don't know if it's just media hype. I didn't say it was.
I said that the consensus at the hospital was that it was media hype.
It's not reasoning. It is a straightforward fact that the medicos at the hospital hold a consensual opinion that it is just media hype.
Of course they are just medicos. What would they know?
If you've got an issue with their conclusion take it up with them. If you intend to I will find out what the number is and pass it on to you.
Me? I'm inclined to side with medical people as opposed to the media.
Select to expand quoteKamikuza said..FormulaNova said..
It doesn't take a genius to figure out that this makes it more serious than SARS was
It's objectively not more serious than SARS.
How is that? Not as serious if you already have them, but if you don't you are at more risk of catching Covid19t than SARS.
Even today, in the office, a colleague was saying that SARS was no big deal, but he is ignoring that scanners at airports were watching for people with higher than normal temperatures, because the symptoms were there before these people were able to pass on the virus.
Now, with Covid19, you can happily travel on the train, a bus, a plane, and pass on the virus, before you yourself know you have it. Therefore, less deadly if you are talking about the effects when you have it, but more likely for you to catch it? With any risk, you multiply these factors together to get the total risk, and the total will be higher with Covid19.
^^*wilson, jeeze the misinformation being spread on social media will cost lives.
Select to expand quotejapie said..kiterboy said..japie said..
She said there had been a bit and that the general consensus is that it is a massive media hype.
I don't get this line of reasoning...mainly cause there isn't one.
If it's all just media hype, why did China lock down 11 million people in Wuhan, right back at the start when only 60 people had died?
Why is Italy locked down etc...?
Where/how does the media hype come into it?
I don't know if it's just media hype. I didn't say it was.
I said that the consensus at the hospital was that it was media hype.
It's not reasoning. It is a straightforward fact that the medicos at the hospital hold a consensual opinion that it is just media hype.
Of course they are just medicos. What would they know?
If you've got an issue with their conclusion take it up with them. If you intend to I will find out what the number is and pass it on to you.
Me? I'm inclined to side with medical people as opposed to the media.
Oh stop getting all defensive and crying wolf.
I was asking a legitimate question and hoping that you could provide some answer, especially since you agree that it's all a media beat up.
What is the reasoning that leads you and others to believe it's just a media beat up?
And how does that fit with the facts of the actions taking place, from China locking down 11 million people for 60 deaths, Italy locking itself down?
Select to expand quoteKamikuza said..kiterboy said..
Well, it has a lower CFR than SARS did. Possibly, the jury is still out on that one.
But the transmission rate and stealth of it is what makes it definitely more dangerous.
More infectious, less deadly is what it looks like to me. And MASSIVELY over-represented in the media especially compared to SARS etc.
Social media. Worse that COVID19 for mind viruses.
It is because it's more infectious that makes it more deadly.
It already killed more people in it's first 8 weeks than SARS did in 8 months. How is that not more deadly?
Select to expand quotekiterboy said..
It is because it's more infectious that makes it more deadly.
It already killed more people in it's first 8 weeks than SARS did in 8 months. How is that not more deadly?
More infectious but less likely to cause death, isn't it? The fatality rate of SARS etc is still higher, but less people actually contracted it.
Again, many times more people have the flu, so despite how un-deadly it is, more people are dying daily that from COVID19.
It's a game of numbers. Look at swine flu -- many times more people died from it, even though the fatality rate was so low...
www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2020/03/covid-19-charts-maps-200310163714493.html
Select to expand quoteKamikuza said..
Again, many times more people have the flu, so despite how un-deadly it is, more people are dying daily that from COVID19.
Why do people keep saying "more people are dying daily from the flu"? Of course they are, the flu is everywhere. Forget how many people are dying from COVID19 today, take a look at the daily death rate and rate of infection and project the growth. In a week it will be 1,000 deaths a day, and it's going to get a lot higher than that if people keep ignoring it. The 500,000 that died from swine flu will be chicken feed. We're looking at many millions if people want to keep harping on about how we don't need to worry about it.
I'm curious, what daily death figure do we need to reach before people think this is a problem?
Select to expand quotekiterboy said..japie said..kiterboy said..japie said..
She said there had been a bit and that the general consensus is that it is a massive media hype.
How on earth do you read getting all defensive and crying wolf into what I wrote?
Some comprehension lessons might be in order.
Have you considered a career in journalism?
I don't get this line of reasoning...mainly cause there isn't one.
If it's all just media hype, why did China lock down 11 million people in Wuhan, right back at the start when only 60 people had died?
Why is Italy locked down etc...?
Where/how does the media hype come into it?
I don't know if it's just media hype. I didn't say it was.
I said that the consensus at the hospital was that it was media hype.
It's not reasoning. It is a straightforward fact that the medicos at the hospital hold a consensual opinion that it is just media hype.
Of course they are just medicos. What would they know?
If you've got an issue with their conclusion take it up with them. If you intend to I will find out what the number is and pass it on to you.
Me? I'm inclined to side with medical people as opposed to the media.
Oh stop getting all defensive and crying wolf.
I was asking a legitimate question and hoping that you could provide some answer, especially since you agree that it's all a media beat up.
What is the reasoning that leads you and others to believe it's just a media beat up?
And how does that fit with the facts of the actions taking place, from China locking down 11 million people for 60 deaths, Italy locking itself down?
Select to expand quoteKamikuza said..kiterboy said..
It is because it's more infectious that makes it more deadly.
It already killed more people in it's first 8 weeks than SARS did in 8 months. How is that not more deadly?
More infectious but less likely to cause death, isn't it? The fatality rate of SARS etc is still higher, but less people actually contracted it.
Again, many times more people have the flu, so despite how un-deadly it is, more people are dying daily that from COVID19.
It's a game of numbers. Look at swine flu -- many times more people died from it, even though the fatality rate was so low...
www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2020/03/covid-19-charts-maps-200310163714493.html
You lost me when you brought up the seasonal flu. Talk about apples and oranges.
Check back in a month or two from now and let us know what you think then.
You do you bro.
Select to expand quotejapie said..kiterboy said..japie said..
She said there had been a bit and that the general consensus is that it is a massive media hype.
I don't get this line of reasoning...mainly cause there isn't one.
If it's all just media hype, why did China lock down 11 million people in Wuhan, right back at the start when only 60 people had died?
Why is Italy locked down etc...?
Where/how does the media hype come into it?
I don't know if it's just media hype. I didn't say it was.
I said that the consensus at the hospital was that it was media hype.
It's not reasoning. It is a straightforward fact that the medicos at the hospital hold a consensual opinion that it is just media hype.
Of course they are just medicos. What would they know?
If you've got an issue with their conclusion take it up with them. If you intend to I will find out what the number is and pass it on to you.
Me? I'm inclined to side with medical people as opposed to the media.
How about you get your medico's to go talk to the medico's in Italy at the moment .... ? .... see if they can learn something past their hubris ? ... Italy at moment is 6.5% death rate and climbing ... Ive seen interviews with Italian 'medico's who have treated 100's of covid patients ... they're saying younger people (40+ ) are also ending up critical pneumonia conditions / ICU's .... ALSO ! ... not just old people ...
Anybody who is down playing this .... you need to re-think .... You think CHina shuts down its entire economy and risk domestic instability over a bit of 'flu' ? .... And dont believe the figures - watch the actions - CCP are building another 19 emergency hospitals ...
I can't take credit for this explanation (copied from elsewhere), but it describes the situation really well:
"The crisis in northern Italy is what happens when a fast doubling rate meets a "threshold effect," where the character of an event can massively change once its size hits a certain threshold.
In this case, the threshold is things such as ICU beds. If the epidemic is small enough, doctors can provide respiratory support to the significant fraction of patients who develop complications, and relatively few will die. But once the number of critical patients exceeds the number of ventilators and ICU beds and other critical-care facilities, mortality rates spike.
A British health-care worker shared a message from a doctor in Italy, who alleged that covid-19 patients in their hospital who are over 65, or have complicating conditions, aren't even being considered for the most intensive forms of supportive treatment.
So everyone needs to understand a few things.
First, the virus is here, and it is spreading quickly, even though everything looks normal. Right now, the United States has more reported cases than Italy had in late February. What matters isn't what you can see but what you can't: the patients who will need ICU care in two to six weeks.
Second, this is not "a bad flu." It kills more of its hosts, and it will spread farther unless we take aggressive steps to slow it down, because no one is yet immune to this disease. It will be quite some time before the virus runs out of new patients.
There's an old brain teaser that goes like this: You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lilypad. This particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on. Now the teaser. "If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?" The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you'll barely know the lily pads are there.
That grim math explains why so many people - including me - are worried about the novel coronavirus, which causes a disease known as covid-19. And why so many other people think we are panicking over nothing.
When something dangerous is growing exponentially, everything looks fine until it doesn't. In the early days of the Wuhan epidemic, when no one was taking precautions, the number of cases appears to have doubled every four to five days.
(Edited version of Washpo article https://www.washingtonpost.co?m/opinion?s/2020/03/10/coronavirus-what-matters-?isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/??)"
Select to expand quoteHarrow said..
Why do people keep saying "more people are dying daily from the flu"?
Because they are.
The point I was making (can't speak for others) is that it's a numbers game, and the numbers are being ...tickled. My personal opinion is that there's a lot of click-baitery going on, but I'm quite cynical so YMMV.
Once again:billions of people get the flu (regular seasonal flu) and while the mortality rate is 0.01% ... it still means hundreds of thousands of people die.SARS had an "infection rate" (R0, see below) similar to flu, but the mortality rate was 10%-- fewer people caught SARS but of those, a higher number died. Ebola has a 50% mortality rate, but a lower rate of transmission -- a smaller number of total people died.
So far, COVID19 is what, <3% mortality rate? But fewer than 100,000 people have it. And the mortality rate is -- just like flu -- dependent on the health of the subject.
R0 is the next thing to look at. It's not terrible, so far it's close to flu.
sph.umich.edu/pursuit/2020posts/how-scientists-quantify-outbreaks.html
It's just not as simple as is being prevented. It's possible that R0 may be even higher, with more people infected but only the sickest being diagnosed -- which would drive the mortality rate down even further.
fortune.com/2020/01/30/wuhan-coronavirus-transmission/
That's it. That's all I'm saying.
Select to expand quotekiterboy said..
You lost me when you brought up the seasonal flu. Talk about apples and oranges.
Check back in a month or two from now and let us know what you think then.
You do you bro.
It's a viral infection that causes a respiratory illness. How is it apples and oranges...?
I think it's being blown somewhat out of proportion and the data is being misrepresented, and so causing unnecessary panic, but the tactics slowly being put in place for dealing with it are sound.
Well, that's all we can do. We won't get a final assessment until it's run it's course, but if the following article is anything to go by, I'm positive about the next month or two.
www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/declares-coronavirus-global-pandemic-live-updates-200311235023766.html
And -- good luck Japan, perhaps you might get more golds this Olympics 
"Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike said cancelling the summer Olympic Games was "impossible", saying Japan was "not thinking of changing directions nor changing plans at all"."
I think the reality of it will hit harder to some when it is their own dads, mums, grandparents that are in ICU.
Lets hope our relaxed " meh, just a flu virus" attitude doesn't see us in full lock down like Italy.
I hope we learn from Italy who are now saying they should have locked down earlier, that they left it too late.
Im glad Im not a doctor in an Italian hospital atm, 65 ICU beds and respirators and 300 who need them to survive
picking who lives and dies everyday.
That is their reality today........but its just a media hype, its not actually happening.
Select to expand quoteKamikuza said..
Once again:billions of people get the flu (regular seasonal flu) and while the mortality rate is 0.01% ... it still means hundreds of thousands of people die.SARS had an "infection rate" (R0, see below) similar to flu, but the mortality rate was 10%-- fewer people caught SARS but of those, a higher number died. Ebola has a 50% mortality rate, but a lower rate of transmission -- a smaller number of total people died.
So far, COVID19 is what, <3% mortality rate? But fewer than 100,000 people have it. And the mortality rate is -- just like flu -- dependent on the health of the subject.
Well that's simple then. You agree the mortality is 3% for Covid19 and only 0.01% for seasonal flu.
Its then a simple matter to imagine if Covid19 spreads to the entire population, and there you have it, 300 times the mortality rate.
Surely you accept that that is significant?
The fact trhat fewer than 100,000 people have it is because it is actively being targetted. Do you agree that not targetting it will lead to a huge increase in numbers? From a virus that you can spread before the symptoms are obvious?
Lotta bowel actions can be louder than words too.
Is that why the dunny roll aisle is empty?
Select to expand quotebobajob said..
Well its had a direct impact on me - The Pixies cancelled!
I thought they were already dead??
Select to expand quoteFormulaNova said..
Well that's simple then. You agree the mortality is 3% for Covid19 and only 0.01% for seasonal flu.
Its then a simple matter to imagine if Covid19 spreads to the entire population, and there you have it, 300 times the mortality rate.
Surely you accept that that is significant?
The fact trhat fewer than 100,000 people have it is because it is actively being targetted.
Do you agree that not targetting it will lead to a huge increase in numbers?
From a virus that you can spread before the symptoms are obvious?
Well, kind of. I think that figure is averaged out. It's like 0.1% for under 20s, but 10% for over 60s or something? I forget, it's in a link there. What a drag it is getting old.
It won't though will it It can't be 300 times the mortality rate, it might be 300 times the figure. But it most likely won't be that high.
And to get 300x the number of dead from COVID19 as from the flu, you'd have to infect (assuming current rates of mortality) almost every person on the planet. I don't think the demographics work to support that...there are simply not enough people in the most vulnerable age brackets.
Sure it is significant. IF it happens. It seems unlikely that it will.
Yeah nah. It's also not a terribly high transmission rate (R0) -- as far as we know -- so the low numbers of infected are unsurprising.
Sure, if you enable vectors of transmission, it'll be transmitted more easily. Quarantining is a good thing.
Same as flu though. www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/spread.htm I think the issue with coronavirus is they don't know how long it lurks around for? Which is why more restrictive quarantining is a good thing.
Select to expand quotelotofwind said..
I think the reality of it will hit harder to some when it is their own dads, mums, grandparents that are in ICU.
Lets hope our relaxed " meh, just a flu virus" attitude doesn't see us in full lock down like Italy.
I hope we learn from Italy who are now saying they should have locked down earlier, that they left it too late.
Im glad Im not a doctor in an Italian hospital atm, 65 ICU beds and respirators and 300 who need them to survive picking who lives and dies everyday. That is their reality today........but its just a media hype, its not actually happening.
Well of course. But those are always the people most at risk which is why we should be getting vaccinations for the seasonal flu.
65 ICU beds? Really?
www.ft.com/content/34f25036-62f4-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
Italy -- older, and smokers. Same as Wuhan, plus more respiratory illnesses. There's a pattern there...
abcnews.go.com/Health/number-coronavirus-cases-rises-italy-hit-hard/story?id=69513697
was talking of a single hospital in Italy.
Like the biggest hospital in Melbourne has 45 ICU beds, If they get 100 people who need one to live????
Select to expand quotelotofwind said..
was talking of a single hospital in Italy.
Like the biggest hospital in Melbourne has 45 ICU beds, If they get 100 people who need one to live????
Okay. Which one?
So work backwards -- how many people would need to have caught it to create enough critical cases to fill those beds? And how many other hospitals are there?
Select to expand quotejapie said..
I spoke to my daughter in law yesterday who is doing her induction into the ICU unit of our local hospital. I asked her if there had been any conversation with regard to the Corona virus,
She said there had been a bit and that the general consensus is that it is a massive media hype.
I think that's just what they are telling the plebs to tell the community to try and stop any panic.
We live in the same area, which hospital was this just saying it is all just massive media hype ????
I spoke to a mate who is a bit high up in the system who said they were in active mode preparing for the worst. He was not saying that is what is going to happen, but they are preparing because its a big possibility .
So which hospital was it saying its just a massive media hype?
We still could do something , to make virus outbreak looks marginal.
What about small nuclear conflict somewhere, to start with?
With politician closing now trave; between continents, countries shutting down whole industries we are already not fat away from the worst sci-fi predictions.
By comparison, Nuclear weapon are already there, but don't pose any danger if not used.
Virus scare also by itself more harmless then introduced measured to stop the progress,One may observe that all those measures are totally useless as pandemic is going their own path regardless, but our actions only excarberate damage.Few day ago Turkish premier just wiped 2500 young Syrian soldiers in single day amd world didn't even blinked. Soldiers that only defended their own country on their own soil.
Few thousands virus victims may seems a lot but in the same time more people died in car accidents around the world.Planned military conflicts around Iran or North Korea are going to wipe few millions within one day.
Select to expand quoteKamikuza said..lotofwind said..
was talking of a single hospital in Italy.
Like the biggest hospital in Melbourne has 45 ICU beds, If they get 100 people who need one to live????
Okay. Which one?
So work backwards -- how many people would need to have caught it to create enough critical cases to fill those beds? And how many other hospitals are there?
Ask Italy, they are saying they are overwhelmed now, as it says in the link you posted ?
I am in no way saying we should panic, what good would that do ??? Just saying some are a bit " Naaaaaa, its nothing" which is the thinking that could make it something.
Im sure some of the countries in lock down use to think the same way 12 days ago.
But, a bolt of lighting might strike you while being attacked by a shark as a vending machine falls on you, its statistically statistical 
Select to expand quotelotofwind said..
was talking of a single hospital in Italy.
Like the biggest hospital in Melbourne has 45 ICU beds, If they get 100 people who need one to live????
We could easy convert our empty hotels and apartment buildings into temporary hospitals.
Gold Coast alone could handle few hundred thousands patients in empty now appartements.
Simple view of ocean from your window could heal .
